每日核心期货品种分析-20251209

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - Shanghai Copper: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - Asphalt: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - PP: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - Plastic: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - Coking Coal: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - Urea: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].