橡胶甲醇原油：偏空氛围主，能化震荡偏弱

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Tuesday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, rising then falling, and weakening in oscillation. The price center of the contract slightly moved down to around 14,990 yuan/ton during the session, and closed 0.76% lower at 14,985 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 spread widened to 50 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price remains oscillating within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,088 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,056 yuan/ton, closing 0.63% lower at 2,066 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 spread narrowed to 77 yuan/ton. Affected by the sharp decline of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started a phased correction [7]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, weakening in decline, and significantly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 453.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 2.26% lower at 446.1 yuan/barrel. The expectation of supply surplus dominated the market again, and Saudi Arabia lowered the selling price in Asia. The bearish sentiment dominated, and the crude oil futures ran weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,200 tons or 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, with a growth rate of 2.08%, and the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%. In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% [9][10][11]. - Methanol: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.01%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a small increase of 3.53% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a significant increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons in the same period last year. As of December 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was 20 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 67 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decline of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a significant week - on - week decrease of 12 and a decline of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.815 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 3.02 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,985 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,100 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,066 yuan/ton | - 23 yuan/ton | +34 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.1 yuan/barrel | - 11.5 yuan/barrel | - 26.1 yuan/barrel | +11.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [16][18][20]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI crude oil net long position change, etc [41][43][45].