理解12月政治局会议的政策基调:淡化总量,追求效能
Orient Securities·2025-12-09 11:12

Policy Framework - The December Politburo meeting emphasizes optimizing the policy framework over merely increasing total volume, focusing on enhancing macro policy effectiveness[6] - The shift in policy focus reflects a change in development stage, moving from addressing immediate challenges to improving governance efficiency[6] Economic Strategy - The meeting highlights the importance of balancing supply and demand, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand while optimizing supply[6] - Policies will aim for both quantity and quality improvements, addressing existing economic shortcomings[6] Future Outlook - Macro policies in 2026 are expected to be more targeted and flexible, with a focus on supporting key areas such as technology and social welfare[6] - The concept of "unified large market" is likely to be a long-term policy focus, aiming to reduce redundant construction and enhance the business environment[6] Risks - There are risks associated with excessive "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a contraction effect that outweighs macro recovery[6] - The resurgence of anti-globalization trends poses risks to global trade and growth environments[6]