黑色金属日报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The black series continues the resonance decline under the negative feedback pattern, and the disk is still under pressure in the short term. After a significant adjustment, the volatility may intensify. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro policies [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose. There are short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium and long term, as supply and demand gradually become surplus, the overall trend is under downward pressure [2]. - The coke and coking coal prices may be mainly in a weak shock. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3][5]. - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are mainly in a shock. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing, and the ferrosilicon supply is decreasing and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the bottom support strength [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk declined. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory slowly declined. The hot metal output continued to decline, and the supply pressure gradually eased. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the steel mill profits were still poor. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage is relatively large. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the infrastructure growth rate continued to decline, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. The steel exports remained high in November [1]. Iron Ore - Today's trend was weak. On the supply side, the global shipment increased month-on-month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year. The port inventory continued to accumulate and approached the annual high. On the demand side, the terminal demand was at a low level in the off-season, the steel mill profitability was poor, and the hot metal production continued to decrease last week. It is expected to maintain the seasonal production reduction trend in the future, but the decline rate will slow down. The overseas interest rate cut expectation has increased, and an important domestic meeting is about to be held, and the overall macro atmosphere is warm [2]. Coke - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The market still has expectations for the second round of coke price cuts. The coking profit is average, and the daily output has slightly increased. The coke inventory has slightly decreased, and currently, downstream customers purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory change is not large. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3]. Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The coking coal mine output decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased. The terminal inventory decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [5]. Silicon Manganese - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. Driven by the disk rebound, the manganese ore spot price has increased. The Comilog quotation has increased slightly month-on-month, and it is reported that the offer volume has decreased month-on-month. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore will probably increase. The hot metal output is seasonally decreasing, the weekly silicon manganese output has decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the hot metal output has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium output has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand is still resilient. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7].