Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The plastics supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere and no further macro - level positives. It is expected that plastics will experience a weak and volatile trend in the near term. Due to potential new capacity additions this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9, the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng's HDPE Phase II led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 90%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film peak season is ending, with orders continuing to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - side crude oil price has dropped. There has been new capacity put into production, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. With the end of the agricultural film peak season, downstream demand is expected to decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and trended downward, closing at 6557 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The position volume decreased by 34,931 lots to 339,262 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6600 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8190 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6860 - 7570 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 9, the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng's HDPE Phase II led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 90%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 69.5 million tons, 3.5 million tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, while the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725 per ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745 per ton [4].
塑料日报：震荡下行-20251209
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-09 11:12