Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - Logic: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - Logic: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - Logic: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - Logic: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - Logic: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].
隔夜原油回吐涨幅，仍是震荡等待地缘驱动看待，能化跟随回落下关注相对偏强品种
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-12-09 12:38