豆粕、油脂下挫

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and oils are on a downward trend, while live pigs are rebounding. Eggs are falling, sugar is rebounding from a low level, and cotton is fluctuating narrowly [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 continues to decline due to the weak performance of US soybeans and high domestic inventories. From January to November 2025, China's soybean imports reached 1.0379 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, and the inventory has rebounded to around 1.2 million tons. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short at resistance levels [1][2]. Oils - The three major oil main contracts 2605 are all falling. The market expects the end - of - November palm oil inventory in Malaysia to surge 7.78% month - on - month to a 6.5 - year high, and crude oil has tumbled. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is sufficient. The palm oil main contract 2605 has entered a downward trend technically, and short - term operations are recommended before the release of the MPOB report [1][3]. Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to rebound. A new cold wave is expected to increase transportation costs and boost consumption such as southern curing and northern sausage - making. The technical chart shows an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 11335 [1][5]. Eggs - The egg main contracts 2601 and 2602 are both falling, with the 2602 contract having a larger decline. The high egg - laying hen inventory and the uncertain de - capacity are pressuring the prices. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short, with the resistance level of the 2601 contract at 3134 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 rebounds from a low level. Although the year - end consumption demand may improve, the seasonal supply pressure is still large. The cost of production provides some support, and the strategy is to hold short positions [9]. Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 fluctuates narrowly. The high sales rate in Xinjiang supports the price, but the commercial inventory is increasing. As of December 5, the cotton commercial total inventory was 4.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11].