动储需求旺盛，看好磷化工产业链发展前景

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the phosphate chemical industry chain, driven by strong demand from energy storage and new energy sectors [2]. Core Insights - The demand for phosphate rock is projected to increase significantly, with expected consumption of 113.2 million tons in 2024, rising to 118.02 million tons in 2025 and 124.14 million tons in 2026. The new demand from emerging sectors is expected to offset declines in traditional sectors [2]. - The supply side indicates a substantial increase in phosphate rock capacity, with planned additions of 6.145 million tons per year from 2025 to 2027, although actual production may lag behind due to environmental and operational challenges [2][3]. - Price forecasts suggest that while low-grade phosphate rock prices may face pressure, high-grade prices are expected to remain elevated due to sustained demand [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Phosphate Chemical Industry Chain Situation - The phosphate chemical industry is based on phosphate rock, processed into phosphoric acid and further into fertilizers and phosphates, with applications in agriculture, construction, food, and lithium batteries [6]. 2. Demand Side - Emerging demand from energy storage is significantly boosting phosphate rock and iron phosphate demand, while traditional fertilizer demand is weakening [8]. - In 2024, the demand for iron phosphate is expected to reach 2.14 million tons, with projections of 3.25 million tons and 4.49 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. 3. Supply Side - Phosphate rock supply is expected to see a significant increase, with planned capacity additions of 6.145 million tons per year from 2025 to 2027, although actual production may be lower due to various constraints [3][55]. - The effective capacity for iron phosphate is projected to rise from 426,000 tons in 2024 to 499,000 tons in 2025 and 540,000 tons in 2026, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][88]. 4. Price Outlook - The overall balance of supply and demand for phosphate rock is expected to stabilize, with operating rates for effective capacity remaining high [2]. - The report anticipates that the effective capacity utilization rate for iron phosphate will improve, leading to a tighter supply-demand situation [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with phosphate rock and iron phosphate integration, such as Tian Ci Materials and Hunan YN Energy, as potential investment targets [2].