光伏行业2026年投资策略报告：反内卷稳步推进，看好新技术及光储协同-20251209

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the steady progress of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the potential of new technologies and the synergy between solar energy and storage [1] - The report predicts that China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2025 will reach 270-300 GW, maintaining a year-on-year growth of -3% to 8% [2][7] - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry in China will directly influence global installation expectations, with China's share of global new installations expected to remain above 50% in 2024 and 2025 [7][10] Group 2 - The report outlines the trend of market-oriented electricity production, noting that the introduction of market mechanisms has led to a decrease in photovoltaic grid connection prices, impacting investment decisions [13][14] - It highlights that the photovoltaic supply-demand mismatch is being addressed through self-discipline and legal reforms, which are expected to improve the industry's overcapacity situation [18][29] - The report discusses the profitability recovery of the photovoltaic sector, with net profits of the photovoltaic equipment sector reaching historical peaks in 2023, followed by a forecasted recovery in 2026 as supply-side reforms take effect [22][56] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated competition in the photovoltaic market, suggesting that technological and regional sales differentiation will be key to future competitiveness [42][44] - It notes that the TOPCon technology is expected to lead the next generation of photovoltaic products, with significant efficiency improvements anticipated [47][50] - The synergy between solar energy and storage is highlighted as a crucial path for future transformation, with both the Chinese and U.S. markets showing strong growth potential in energy storage [51][55] Group 4 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, including companies involved in polysilicon production, new technologies, solar-storage integration, and overseas capacity expansion [56] - It suggests that companies like LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar are well-positioned to benefit from the growing energy storage market [55][56] - The report concludes that the overall photovoltaic industry is expected to recover from previous losses, with a focus on sustainable growth driven by technological advancements and market reforms [56]