晨会聚焦：食品饮料何长天：需求景气延续，关注新消费下的结构性机会-20251209

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained demand in the soft drink industry, highlighting structural opportunities under new consumption trends [3][4][5] - The soft drink industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.6% as of November 28, 2025, with a relative underperformance against the Shanghai Composite Index and the food and beverage index [3][4] - The report indicates that the sales volume of soft drinks in China has maintained a mid-to-high single-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases while prices remain stable [4][5] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that positive price signals have emerged, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turning positive in October 2025, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a narrowing decline [4][5] - The report forecasts a structural prosperity driven by health and functionality trends in the soft drink market, with a focus on new categories and channels that stimulate consumption growth [5][6] - The beverage industry is expected to continue benefiting from cost advantages, particularly in sugar and PET prices, while the price of corrugated paper is anticipated to rise [6][7] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is characterized by increasing concentration and platformization, with leading companies enhancing their advantages in revenue resilience, growth, and profitability [7][8] - The report suggests that the beverage sector's recovery post-pandemic has outpaced other fast-moving consumer goods, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% from 2022 to 2024 [5][6] - Investment recommendations focus on selecting leading companies in high-growth segments such as functional beverages and sugar-free tea, while also considering the ongoing cost advantages in raw materials and packaging [8]