12月鹰派降息或在预期之内，未来货币政策路径或在会议之外

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in December, but this has already been priced in by the market, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 30% to 95% after comments from New York Fed President Williams[6] - The key focus of the December meeting will be on policy communication and forward guidance rather than the rate cut itself, which is seen as a dovish move[6] - A hawkish forward guidance is expected to accompany the rate cut to manage market expectations and avoid excessive optimism that could lead to asset bubbles and inflation rebounds[6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Risks - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the three-month average of non-farm payrolls indicating a decline, with October showing a loss of 54,000 jobs and November showing a loss of 2,000 jobs[6] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise above 4.5% if demand continues to weaken, which could significantly increase recession risks[6] - The Challenger company reported a significant rise in layoff announcements in October, indicating potential future increases in unemployment[6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - There is a risk of profit-taking in the market following the Fed's meeting, particularly in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, as stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold may face short-term pressure[6] - The upcoming employment data release on December 16 will be crucial in shaping market expectations and could influence the Fed's future policy decisions[6]