银河期货油脂日报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oils and fats market lacks clear drivers and shows large intraday fluctuations, generally maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to consider low - buying, high - selling interval operations for unilateral trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4][7][9] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybeans, the 2601 closing price was 8190 with a decline of 40. In different regions, spot prices varied. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 280, 260, and 160 respectively, with no change in the basis. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8648 with a decline of 58. Spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9393 with a decline of 109, and the basis in relevant regions had different values [2] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybeans was 206 with a rise of 8, that of palm oil was 20 with a rise of 16, and that of rapeseed oil was 226 with a decline of 2 [2] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 contract of Y - P was - 458 with a rise of 18, OI - Y was 1203 with a decline of 69, OI - P was 745 with a decline of 51, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.89 with a decline of 0.07 [2] - Import Profits: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 1 - month shipment was 1039, and the on - disk profit was - 180. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 1 - month shipment was 1073, and the on - disk profit was - 1130 [2] - Weekly Commercial Oils and Fats Inventory: In the 49th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 116.3 tons (last week: 117.9 tons, same period last year: 96.4 tons), palm oil was 68.4 tons (last week: 65.4 tons, same period last year: 53.9 tons), and rapeseed oil was 35.3 tons (last week: 36.8 tons, same period last year: 46.1 tons) [2] Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: As of December 7, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 90.3%, compared with 86.0% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8% [4] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of December 5, the national key - area commercial inventory was 68.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.02 tons (4.62%). The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 200. There was a rumor of a near - month purchase. The basis was stable with a slight decline. It was recommended to adopt high - selling and low - buying operations and pay attention to the MPOB report [4] - Soybean Oil: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. The soybean crushing volume last week was 205.58 tons, and the operating rate was 56.55%. As of December 5, the national key - area commercial inventory was 116.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58 tons (1.34%). The inventory reached an inflection point. The basis was stable with a slight decline, and the market trading was light. It was expected to maintain a volatile trend, and one could consider light - position buying on dips [4][7] - Rapeseed Oil: Futures prices fluctuated and closed down by over 1%. The rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas last week was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of December 5, the coastal inventory was 35.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was stable around 1100 dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1000. The domestic supply was expected to improve. The basis was stable with a slight decline, and the demand was lackluster. It was recommended to adopt high - selling and low - buying operations [7] Third Part: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider short - term low - buying, high - selling interval operations due to the lack of drivers and large intraday fluctuations in the oils and fats market [9] - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils and fats. The time span of the data is from 2016 - 2025, and the data sources are Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][16]