Guoxin Securities·2025-12-09 15:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" investment rating for the insurance industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The release of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory marks a significant step for commercial health insurance in the innovative drug payment sector, creating a "second battlefield" that complements the basic medical insurance directory [2][13]. - The new policy alleviates the long-standing conflict between cost control pressures in medical insurance and the innovation demands of pharmaceutical companies, injecting momentum into the healthy development of China's innovative drug industry [2][13]. - The unified directory standardizes fragmented special drug demand and centralizes payment data, providing a reusable "public infrastructure" for the industry, enabling insurance companies to sustainably manage risks in the innovative drug sector for the first time [2][13]. Summary by Sections Policy Positioning - The introduction of the innovative drug directory clarifies the boundaries between basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance in the innovative drug payment field, allowing commercial insurance to play a supplementary role in the multi-tiered medical security system [3][10]. Market Size and Growth - In 2024, the commercial health insurance premium income reached 977.3 billion yuan, nearing the scale of resident medical insurance funding for the same year. However, the total payment for innovative drugs by commercial health insurance was only 7.4 billion yuan, representing a mere 5.3% of the 140 billion yuan innovative drug market [3][6]. Payment Mechanism - The directory employs a price negotiation mechanism, granting companies greater pricing power, which is beneficial for rapid cost recovery of R&D and encourages innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [6][8]. Liability Side - The implementation of the commercial health insurance directory is expected to clarify the boundaries of medical insurance and commercial insurance, thereby increasing demand for medical insurance products [10]. Asset Side - The directory provides insurance funds with opportunities for deep integration with the medical industry, allowing for a dual approach of "insurance + investment" to achieve excess returns [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with differentiated advantages in the health insurance sector, such as China Property & Casualty Insurance, Ping An Insurance, China Taiping Insurance, and ZhongAn Online [2][13].