——可转债周报20251206：有色金属转债能否再起趋势性行情？-20251210

Report Title - "Can Non-ferrous Convertible Bonds Stage Another Trendy Market? - Convertible Bond Weekly Report 20251206" [1][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector showed continuous excess returns from October 2020 to November 2021, with the market divided into two stages around June 2021. In the later stage, convertible bonds and equities strengthened synchronously. Currently, the average remaining term of non-ferrous convertible bonds is short, the issuers may have a strong willingness to promote conversion, and the scale has shrunk compared to 2021. The subsequent market of non-ferrous convertible bonds is worth attention [2][6][10] - During the week, the A-share market was generally strong, with the ChiNext Index being relatively prominent. Cyclical manufacturing industries performed well, and the changes in sector congestion were differentiated [2][6][10] - The convertible bond market strengthened overall, with the large-cap index under pressure and the small and medium-cap indices performing relatively steadily. The trading volume continued to decline, and the valuation was stretched overall. The cyclical manufacturing sectors such as machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the performance, and the trading was mainly concentrated in the power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors [10] - The primary market continued to advance steadily, with 1 new bond completing subscription and many issuers updating their plans. The proposed issuance scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage remained around 69 billion yuan. Clause-related games continued, which may disrupt the valuation structure and trading rhythm [10] Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous Convertible Bonds Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector had obvious continuous excess returns from October 2020 to November 2021. The market can be divided into two stages, and the second stage may reflect the process of capital consensus formation. Currently, the non-ferrous convertible bonds have a short remaining term and a more dispersed structure, with a smaller total scale [15][16] - The improvement in the prosperity of the non-ferrous sector may be the source of the excess returns of convertible bonds in the sub - industries. Aluminum showed significant excess returns in the second stage, and the callback of futures prices in October 2021 may have suppressed the continuous excess returns of equities and convertible bonds [23] 2. Market Theme Weekly Review - During the week (November 30 - December 06, 2025), the equity market was generally strong, and the aerospace and defense themes performed strongly, while the AI - related themes that performed well previously were relatively weak [26] 3. Market Weekly Tracking 3.1 Main Stock Indexes - The main A - share stock indexes strengthened during the week, with the ChiNext Index performing strongly among the three major indexes. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes performed significantly better than other major scale indexes. The net outflow of market main funds expanded slightly, and the average daily trading volume was basically the same as last week [29] - The cyclical manufacturing sectors such as non-ferrous metals, machinery and equipment, and light industry manufacturing showed good performance, while industries such as real estate, beauty care, banking, and media were weak. The trading was mainly concentrated in the electronics and power equipment sectors, and the proportion of the electronics sector increased [32][33] - The congestion of market sectors was differentiated. The congestion of sectors such as electronics, communications, non-ferrous metals, and national defense and military industry increased, while that of sectors such as medicine and biology, banking, and beauty care decreased [35] 3.2 Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market strengthened overall, with the large-cap convertible bond index performing weakly and the medium-cap index performing better. The trading volume continued to shrink, with the average daily trading volume less than 5.5 billion yuan [39] - The valuation of the convertible bond market was stretched overall. The implied volatility fluctuated and strengthened, and the median market price increased slightly and remained at a high level. The cyclical manufacturing sectors such as machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the performance, and the trading was mainly concentrated in the power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors [44][48][51] - Most individual convertible bonds recovered. Among the top 5 rising convertible bonds during the week, some had greater elasticity than the corresponding underlying stocks [57] 4. Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking 4.1 Primary Market - One new convertible bond, Puxin Software Convertible Bond (Puxin Bond), completed subscription during the week. A total of 12 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and the total scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage was 69.01 billion yuan [60][61][62] 4.2 Clause Events - There were 14 convertible bonds announcing expected trigger of downward revision, 5 announcing non - downward revision, and no proposal for downward revision during the week. There were 3 convertible bonds announcing expected trigger of redemption, 3 announcing non - early redemption, and 3 announcing early redemption [72][79]