贵?属震荡偏强，银价展现韧性

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a volatile and upward trend in December. After the 12 - month FOMC meeting, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the amplitude is likely to be limited. The long - term upward trend of precious metals will be dominated by the contraction of the US dollar's credit, and silver may have greater elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Key News - US President Trump may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods and will use support for immediate and substantial interest - rate cuts as a criterion for selecting the new Fed chair [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report shows that private - sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four - week period ending November 22 [2]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November was 99, up from 98.2 in the previous period [2]. - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's financial system is generally stable, and the government is responsible for achieving medium - to long - term fiscal sustainability. The BOJ is closely monitoring the risk exposure of Japanese banks to non - bank financial institutions outside Japan. The exchange rate should follow the fundamentals, and if inflation accelerates rapidly, the policy will be adjusted. The economy is expected to resume positive growth in Q4 and continue to grow thereafter, and the BOJ has been gradually reducing the easing intensity [2]. 3.2. Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold and silver prices were relatively strong and volatile, with silver showing resilience at high levels. The market is waiting for the outcome of the interest - rate meeting. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has been fully traded, and there may be adjustment pressure after the meeting, but the amplitude may be limited [1][3]. - In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving factor for the quarter. The probability of a more dovish candidate, Hassett, being nominated as the Fed chair is increasing. After the nomination and before taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence [3]. - The leading role of silver provides support for gold prices. The squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper and may remain a hot topic for capital trading this month [3]. - In the long term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar's credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle to a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity [3]. 3.3. Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4,000, 4,400], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [53, 60] [3]. 3.4. Commodity Indexes - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index decreased by 1.08%, 1.08%, and 1.38% respectively, with values of 2,242.53, 2,560.81, and 2,185.44 [43]. 3.5. Precious Metals Index - On December 9, 2025, the precious metals index was 3495.55, with a daily decline of 0.74%, a decline of 0.32% in the past five days, an increase of 4.20% in the past month, and an increase of 58.00% since the beginning of the year [45].