Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, industrial silicon, carbonates, polysilicon, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation, with different trends and influencing factors in each sector. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Tuesday, precious metal prices strengthened. The international silver price broke through the $60 mark, and the domestic Shanghai silver reached 14,000 yuan, hitting a new high. [1] - Fundamentals: JOLTS report shows a more than 4% month - on - month decline in monthly recruitment, and layoff numbers rose to 1.85 million. The "little non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions and exchanges. [1] - Trading Strategies: Before the interest - rate meeting, it is recommended to take partial profits on gold and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels. For silver, due to a continuous increase in domestic inventories, it is recommended to take profits on long positions. [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated weakly yesterday. [2] - Fundamentals: Approaching the interest - rate hike, the U.S. Treasury yield strengthened, and the U.S. dollar was relatively strong. The supply of copper ore remained tight. [2] - Trading Strategies: Wait and see before the interest - rate cut is implemented. [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.24% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 21,775 yuan/ton. [2] - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly. [2] - Trading Strategies: Both long and short positions reduced. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to a warm macro - environment and low inventories. [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.51% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,546 yuan/ton. [2] - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants started maintenance, with a decline in operating capacity, but no large - scale production cuts occurred. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. [2] - Trading Strategies: Before large - scale production cuts occur, futures and spot prices will continue to be under downward pressure. However, since the current price has reached the 2,500 - yuan support level, beware of technical rebounds in the market. [2] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Tuesday morning, it opened flat and then dropped significantly following the coking coal trend. The main 01 contract closed at 8,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 335 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [3] - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased by 19 this week, mainly in Sichuan. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventories also increased slightly. The polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. [3] - Trading Strategies: The current supply and demand are stable, but social inventories have increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. Southwest regions may further cut production, and environmental protection disturbances in the northwest need attention. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] Carbonates - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 92,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,040 yuan, with a closing price decrease of 2.1%. [3] - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate decreased by $5/ton. Supply increased slightly last week, and demand in some sectors is expected to decline in December. It is expected to continue de - stocking in December, but the shortage situation will ease. [3] - Trading Strategies: Given the strong current situation and weak seasonal expectations, the short - term upward price drive is limited. It is recommended to consider selling high - IV call options or shorting on rallies. [3] Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Tuesday morning, it opened flat and oscillated upward throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,065 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [3] - Fundamentals: Weekly production remained stable. Industry inventories increased slightly this week. Demand in downstream sectors decreased in December. The "136 - document" mechanism electricity price policy may put pressure on photovoltaic installations in the fourth quarter. [3] - Trading Strategies: It is expected that the main contract price will first return to the core spot trading range of 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual production capacity release, supply stability, and delivery quality of the two new delivery brands. [3] Black Industries Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. [5] - Fundamentals: Steel inventory decreased significantly, and the demand - supply situation of steel is weak with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and the valuation is low. [5] - Trading Strategies: Hold short positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan. [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 758.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. [5] - Fundamentals: Iron ore supply and demand are weak. The iron ore market shows a forward - discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high. [5] - Trading Strategies: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 yuan. [5] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,083 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. [5] - Fundamentals: The iron - making output decreased, and the profit of steel mills deteriorated. The coking coal market shows a forward - premium structure, and the futures valuation is high. [5] - Trading Strategies: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1,060 - 1,100 yuan. [5] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, trading on the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. [6] - Fundamentals: The supply side has a slight near - term reduction, and a large - scale supply is expected in the long - term in South America. The demand side shows strong U.S. soybean crushing, and exports are still in a game. [6] - Trading Strategies: U.S. soybeans are weak, trading on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The domestic market will follow the cost side in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policy progress and production in the producing areas. [6] Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are weaker in the near - term than in the far - term, and most spot prices are stable with a few decreasing. [7] - Fundamentals: National corn channel inventories are low, and there is a need to build inventories. However, continuous price increases have led to increased losses in downstream deep - processing and reduced procurement enthusiasm in the feed sector. [7] - Trading Strategies: The spot price in the Northeast is weakening, and futures prices are expected to oscillate downward. [7] Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market closed slightly higher yesterday. [7] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows a 4% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in November, and the demand side shows a 20% month - on - month decrease in exports. [7] - Trading Strategies: The P contract is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term, trading on the seasonal factor. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies. [7] Cotton - Market Performance: U.S. cotton futures prices rebounded after a decline, and international crude oil prices continued to fall. [7] - Fundamentals: The U.S. Department of Agriculture slightly adjusted the global cotton production and increased the ending inventory in the 25/26 season. In China, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly with strong buying support. [7] - Trading Strategies: Buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,600 - 13,900 yuan/ton. [7] Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices are weak, while spot prices are rising. [7] - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in stock is decreasing, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down. The market is in a state of general sales, and inventories are accumulating. [7] - Trading Strategies: With little supply - demand contradiction, futures prices are expected to oscillate. [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose slightly. [7] - Fundamentals: Demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased. Pay attention to the change in slaughter volume recently. [7] - Trading Strategies: With seasonal demand increase, futures prices are expected to oscillate. [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: Yesterday, the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. The spot price in North China is 6,530 yuan/ton, and the basis is stable. [8] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows that new device production and some device shutdowns have slowed the domestic supply pressure. The demand side is in the off - season for agricultural films, and demand has weakened. [9] - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve next year, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips. [9] PVC - Market Performance: V01 closed at 4,367, a 1% decrease. [9] - Fundamentals: PVC prices continued to fall, and the basis weakened. Supply increased, and demand decreased seasonally. Social inventories are at a high level. [9] - Trading Strategies: With weak supply - demand, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage. [9] Glass - Market Performance: fg01 closed at 980, a 2% decrease. [9] - Fundamentals: Glass production has decreased significantly, and prices are temporarily stable. Inventories have decreased, and downstream demand is weak. [9] - Trading Strategies: With weak supply - demand, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage. [9] PP - Market Performance: Yesterday, the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. The spot price in East China is 6,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is stable. [9] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows an increase in domestic supply, and the demand side shows weak downstream start - up rates. [9] - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve next year, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips. [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Yesterday, oil prices weakened again due to potential peace agreements. [9] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows large supply pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. Inventories are accumulating. [9] - Trading Strategies: There is a high probability of supply surplus at the end of the year and in Q1. It is recommended to short crude oil and wait for geopolitical events to provide premiums before shorting at high prices. [9] Styrene - Market Performance: Yesterday, the EB main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 6,600 yuan/ton. [10] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows high inventories of pure benzene and styrene, and the demand side shows weak downstream demand. [10] - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, it is recommended to buy styrene on dips or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and buy styrene profit on dips. [10] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa01 closed at 1,126, a 1.2% decrease. [10] - Fundamentals: New soda ash plants have been put into production, and prices have fallen. Inventories are at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. [10] - Trading Strategies: With weak supply - demand, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage. [10]
招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251210
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-12-10 01:08