硅料收储推进预期升温，多晶硅领涨新能源金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of silicon material storage promotion is rising, and polysilicon leads the rise of new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policy in Nigeria last weekend supports the price of lithium carbonate, and polysilicon price was once under pressure due to the increase in registered brands but is supported by the rising expectation of silicon material storage policy. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon with a possible rise in price center; the lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but the demand expectation is also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point of lithium carbonate may appear earlier [1]. - For industrial silicon, the cost support weakens and the silicon price falls. For polysilicon, the storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. For lithium carbonate, the slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Cost support weakens, and silicon price falls. The price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, and 421 is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The domestic inventory is 454,300 tons, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic monthly output in November 2025 is 402,000 tons, an 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to November is 3.871 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease. The export in October is 45,073 tons, a 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 607,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October 2025 is 12.6GW, a 30.43% month - on - month increase and 38.3% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Main Logic: The sharp decline in coal prices weakens the cost support. In December, industrial silicon production may still decline. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. The inventory accumulation trend continues, and the fundamentals are weak. - Outlook: The price shows a weakening trend in oscillation [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Viewpoint: The storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. The成交 price of N - type re - feed material is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,810 lots, unchanged. The export volume in October is about 1,547.8 tons, a 58% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 20,215 tons, a 33% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in October is about 1,446 tons, a 39.1% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative import from January to October 2025 is 16,123 tons, a 52.26% year - on - year decrease. The new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October 2025 is 252.87GW, a 39.5% year - on - year increase [7]. - Main Logic: The storage expectation of the polysilicon platform is rising, and the price is highly volatile. The supply in the southwest region is decreasing due to the dry season, and the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. - Outlook: The price fluctuates widely [7][9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price. On December 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.15% to 92,800 yuan/ton; the total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 30,399 lots to 1,023,470 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 lots to 12,920 lots [9]. - Main Logic: The current market has strong supply and demand, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The resumption of production at the Jiuxiawo mine may cause price fluctuations. If the Jiuxiawo mine resumes production, the supply may turn loose in late December. - Outlook: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10][11]. 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided. 3.3中信期货商品指数 (CITIC Futures Commodity Index) - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index is 2,242.53, a 1.08% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2,560.81, a 1.08% decrease; the industrial product index is 2,185.44, a 1.38% decrease. The new energy commodity index on December 9, 2025, is 434.41, with a daily decrease of 1.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.05%, a 1 - month increase of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.34% [53][55].