中泰期货晨会纪要-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market trends of various futures products are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [3]. - Based on quantitative indicators, the market trends of futures products are classified into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [5]. - The macro - economic situation involves international and domestic policies, corporate events, and economic data, which have an impact on the financial and commodity markets [9][10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - WEN Technology proposes to hold constructive talks on the dispute over Nexperia to seek a long - term solution [9]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasizes China's economic confidence and development prospects [9]. - Trump may approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [9]. - China and Russia conduct the 10th joint air strategic cruise [9]. - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is established [10]. - The Fed may cut interest rates, and market expectations for future interest rate cuts vary [10][13]. - ADP data shows an increase in US private employment, and JOLTS job vacancies exceed expectations [10]. - Zelensky is ready for elections in Ukraine and requests assistance [10]. - The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy [11]. - The current high price of iron ore is due to capital games and speculation, and the price may be suppressed by inventory and demand [11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a wide - range oscillating strategy. The market is affected by policies, economic data, and interest rate expectations. The short - term market is expected to continue oscillating and recovering [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are still cautious in the medium term. The market is affected by capital supply, policies, and institutional behavior [15]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - Policy focuses on quality and efficiency, and the market is affected by demand, supply, and inventory. Steel prices are likely to remain weak [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with potential for a phased rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the rebound space is limited [19]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, consider a long - biased strategy at low prices; for silicomanganese, a short - biased strategy at high prices is recommended [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, take a wait - and - see approach; for glass, consider a long - position after the market sentiment stabilizes [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [23]. Lead - It is recommended to hold previous short positions. Lead prices may oscillate in the short term, and there is a risk of a further decline in the operating center [25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will oscillate widely, and the long - term demand is positive for prices [27]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see a reduction in production in the north. Pay attention to environmental protection and cost factors, and the market may shift to the game of polysilicon production reduction expectations [28]. Polysilicon - Pay attention to the actions of the platform company. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and the futures price is expected to be strong under policy expectations [29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply pressure, and the price is expected to bottom out. Look for low - buying opportunities [30][31]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The price is expected to oscillate and decline. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [32][33]. Eggs - Near - month contracts are under pressure, and far - month contracts are supported by supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate [36]. Corn - Pay attention to spot price changes and short at high prices [37][38]. Red Dates - Buy far - month contracts at low prices [39]. Live Pigs - The spot market has strong supply and weak demand. Hold short positions in near - month contracts and control risks [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply is in excess, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [42][43]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical factors and the Fed's interest - rate decision [44]. Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short after the price rebounds [45]. Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Consider selling call options at high prices [46]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Wait and see [47]. Methanol - Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after inventory reduction [48][49]. Caustic Soda - Keep a short - term oscillating strategy. Observe investment opportunities in far - month contracts after contract roll - over [50]. Asphalt - The demand is approaching the end, and the price is expected to fluctuate more. The focus is on the post - winter - storage price bottom [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term price is affected by costs. Pay attention to the spread opportunities between PTA and PF and the reverse spread of ethylene glycol [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price is expected to change from high - level oscillation to a decline [53]. Pulp - After the positive news fades, the price may oscillate weakly. Short the 03 contract or sell call options at high prices [55]. Logs - The price is under pressure in the short term, and the basis provides some support [56]. Urea - The spot market is expected to remain stable and weak. Keep an oscillating strategy [57].