玉米现货震荡，盘面持续回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with most varieties expected to be in a state of shock, and some varieties showing a shock - weakening trend. The future market trend depends on factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Yesterday, it continued to fluctuate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as concerns about US soybean export demand, favorable weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, and the expected release of a relatively mild and loose signal by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [5]. - Logic: On the macro - level, the market expects the Federal Reserve to release a relatively mild and loose signal, and the US dollar rebounded on Monday. Crude oil prices fell due to the resumption of Iraqi oil supply and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. On the industrial side, the precipitation in South American soybean - producing areas has improved recently. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the production in Malaysia in November is expected to decline slightly month - on - month, and the exports are expected to decline. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the later stage [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The double - meal market continues to be weak. In the short term, the price of imported soybeans is expected to decline slightly, and the basis is stable. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, mainly by the state reserve, and the performance of rapeseed meal is suppressed by the expected import of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, the normalcy of South American weather determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [6]. - Logic: Internationally, US soybeans are still dominated by Chinese procurement and South American weather. Domestically, in the short - term, the auction of imported soybeans is imminent, the spot price is slightly lowered, and the basis is stable. The soybean inventory is high, and the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. In the medium - term, the procurement of imported soybeans in January is mainly by the state reserve, and the commercial procurement is absent due to crushing losses. The expected import of Australian rapeseed suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather is the key factor for the price of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price continues to decline. In the short - term, it is expected to have a phased correction, and before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to fluctuate [1][7][8]. - Logic: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China are mainly stable, with some local slight increases or decreases. The ports generally follow the futures price and continue to decline. Due to the news of regulatory reserve auctions and the futures price reaching a high - level integer mark, the market sentiment has changed, and the futures price has fallen. The increase in the willingness of grass - roots traders and drying towers to sell goods in the Northeast has led to a phased increase in the market's circulating grain sources. In North China, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is low, and the pre - price drop has triggered the grass - roots' reluctance to sell. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated to some extent in the next two weeks, and the futures price is expected to have a phased correction [1][7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - Viewpoint: Concerns about the epidemic drive the price to rebound. In the short - term, the price runs in a low - level range. In the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [9]. - Logic: Recently, the epidemic has shown a trend of increasing month - on - month, but the impact is still limited year - on - year. As the curing season approaches, the market sentiment has warmed up, but the space is limited. In terms of supply, in the short - term, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter in November was slightly lower than 100%, and there was a small amount of inventory carried over. In the medium - term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still at a high level, and the number of new - born piglets continued to increase from January to October, so the slaughter volume of commercial pigs is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets in November 2025 decreased month - on - month, so the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to feed has increased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the average slaughter weight has continued to increase month - on - month [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The sideways shock trend remains unchanged. The price is expected to continue to maintain a narrow - range shock, and it is difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [10][13]. - Logic: Yesterday, natural rubber continued to fluctuate. The 15,000 - yuan mark has certain support. At present, there is no strong driving force. The downstream buying is light recently, and the market sentiment is bearish. The impact of the recent floods in Thailand on rubber tapping is limited, and the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the past two days. Fundamentally, the overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the firm raw material prices support the futures price to some extent, but there is still a certain downward pressure. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price drop [10][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The futures price maintains a shock pattern. There is no upward driving force for the time being, and there is support from natural rubber below, so the futures price maintains a range shock [14]. - Logic: BR continued to fluctuate yesterday. The hype sentiment about the news of butadiene exports last week has basically been digested. Considering the relatively stable recent trading volume of butadiene and the limited downward space of natural rubber prices, the BR futures price is unlikely to drop significantly for the time being. The price of butadiene has rebounded after falling. Although the production and inventory have increased, some buyers have entered the market after the price dropped to the annual low, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, as the price rises, the enthusiasm of sellers to ship has increased, and some high - price transactions have been blocked [14]. 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: There is resistance to short - term breakthrough. In the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [15]. - Logic: On the supply side, the expected output of new cotton in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the new cotton is continuously on the market, and the cumulative inspection volume is faster than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, after the "Double 11" orders ended, the downstream demand decreased seasonally, but there is rigid procurement support. On the inventory side, due to the concentrated listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory is in the process of accumulating, and the demand for cotton is good. The speculation of warehouse receipts has boosted the 01 contract to be relatively strong recently. However, after the futures price is higher than the hedging break - even line, the enterprise's willingness to hedge increases, and the upward pressure gradually increases, suppressing the rebound height. In the long - term, the domestic market is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation or a tight balance in the new year, and as the inventory enters the de - stocking period, the upward pressure on cotton prices will be reduced [15]. 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The lower support is strong, and the sugar price rebounds slightly. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short on rebounds, and there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton in the short - term [16]. - Logic: In the long - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are likely to continue the "weakly volatile" pattern. The core logic is that the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season has turned to a significant surplus, with the four major sugar - producing countries of Brazil, India, Thailand, and China increasing production simultaneously, and the new supply continues to expand. After entering the new crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply is becoming a reality. In the short - term, the downward space of the 01 contract is limited, and there is strong support around 5,300 yuan/ton, but in the long - term, the sugar price is still under pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: After reaching the pressure level, it falls back, and the wide - range shock pattern continues. The futures price is expected to show a wide - range shock with a slightly rising trend. It is advisable to allocate more on dips and wait and see at high levels [16][17]. - Logic: Last week, the pulp futures price rose rapidly from the bottom of the range to near the top. In the recent three trading days, it has continued to fall. There were some positive news during the rise, such as the increase in the US dollar - denominated price, the shutdown of pulp mills, and the significant decline in port inventory. The current game point is whether the new positive factors can boost the price to effectively break through the upper edge of the shock range. Fundamentally, the price increase of broad - leaf pulp can be passed on downstream, and the narrowing of the price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp supports the bottom of the needle - leaf pulp and the futures price. The supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills is offset by the high inventory of pulp mills, but the actual actions of pulp mills increase the probability of the increase in the US dollar - denominated price of needle - leaf pulp. The pressure at the upper edge of the range comes from the fact that the current futures price allows the US dollar - denominated price and the spot price to be at par or to conduct risk - free hedging on the futures market and form warehouse receipts. The liquidity of the needle - leaf pulp spot market is relatively abundant, and the sales are not smooth, which increases the possibility of warehouse receipt registration and becomes the price pressure [16][17]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - Viewpoint: The demand is weak, and the weak trend continues. In the short - term, it is mainly weakly stable, and in the medium - term, the paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand by reducing prices or production [18][20]. - Logic: Recently, the double - glue paper futures price has continued to be weak. Although the cost side has support, the demand is weak, and the implementation of the paper mills' price increase letters is very limited. At the beginning of December, some paper enterprises raised their quotes, and some dealers in the northern market followed up slightly. The paper enterprises' production is generally stable, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased. The current publication orders have not been picked up in a concentrated manner, the social demand in the southern market is weak, and the trading atmosphere of the base paper is average, and the paper price is basically stable. The upstream wood pulp price is mainly rising, but the increase of double - glue paper is less than that of raw materials [18][20]. 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: It lacks the upward momentum and fluctuates in a narrow range. The overall market pattern is loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contract at a low price [21]. - Logic: Yesterday, the log futures price rose and then fell back. The fundamentals have improved to some extent, but only provide strong support at the bottom, and the upward momentum is still lacking. Recently, the supply may be alleviated. The shipment from New Zealand declined last week, and it is expected to decline further from December to January. There is a rumor that there is a quarantine problem with Japanese cryptomeria, and attention should be paid to the follow - up development. In the domestic market, the spot price in the Jiangsu market has declined slightly, and the demand support is insufficient. The 01 contract has no clear upward or downward driving force in the short - term, and the 03 contract has relatively strong game characteristics. Considering the current low overall valuation of logs, as it gradually enters the delivery month, under the background that the weakening of the 01 contract drags down the 03 contract, it is advisable to go long on the 03 contract at a low price or consider the 1 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [21].