Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's approaching interest rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting releasing loose policy signals, combined with supply - side disturbances and inventory changes, will affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors, and short - term price trends are mainly affected by macro events, supply - demand relationships and inventory levels [5][8][11] Summary of Key Points by Metal Copper - Market Information: Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the US dollar index rebounded, the domestic equity market weakened, and copper prices pulled back. LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.76% to $11,470/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,020 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipts decreased to 30,000 tons [4] - Strategy View: The approaching Fed's interest rate meeting is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The expected reduction in production due to tight mines and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to remain high. The reference operating range for SHFE copper main contract today is 90,500 - 92,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,400 - 11,650 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - Market Information: As the Fed's interest rate meeting approached, the market sentiment turned cautious, and aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum closed down 1.42% to $2,845/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,835 yuan/ton. The total position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased significantly by 63,000 to 661,000 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 523,000 tons [7] - Strategy View: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium remains high, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline. With supply disturbances and stable downstream operating rates, aluminum prices are strongly supported. The reference operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract today is 21,700 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,880 dollars/ton [8] Lead - Market Information: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.99% to 17,167 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 19.5 dollars to $1,992/ton compared to the previous day. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [10] - Strategy View: The port inventory of lead ore has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased normally. The operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and downstream battery enterprises have all increased. Although the smelter's factory inventory has continued to rise, the domestic lead ingot social inventory has decreased to a low level, and lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [11] Zinc - Market Information: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.96% to 23,077 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 24 dollars to $3,100.5/ton compared to the previous day. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,190 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [12] - Strategy View: The visible inventory of zinc ore has decreased, and the zinc concentrate TC has declined again. The domestic supply has narrowed marginally, and the LME zinc inventory has slowly accumulated. In the medium term, the zinc industry's supply surplus cycle remains, and the upside space is limited. In the short term, due to the narrowing of supply and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [13] Tin - Market Information: On December 9, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 312,320 yuan/ton, down 2.16% from the previous day. The supply shortage of raw materials has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The demand in traditional fields is weak, and the long - term demand from emerging fields provides support for tin prices. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was afraid of high prices, and spot trading was cold [14] - Strategy View: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances determine the short - term price. After the macro - risks are released, tin prices may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 42,000 dollars/ton [15] Nickel - Market Information: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 117,350 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day. The spot premium of each brand remained stable, and the nickel ore price remained stable, while the nickel iron price rebounded significantly [16] - Strategy View: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, short - term nickel prices may turn to volatile operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term reference operating range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC late - session index reported 91,069 yuan, up 0.11% from the previous working day. The LC2605 contract closed at 92,800 yuan, down 2.15% from the previous day [20] - Strategy View: The domestic futures market was under pressure on Tuesday. There are differences in the market between supply release and demand expectation realization. There is uncertainty in the resumption time of production at Jianxiaowo and the first - quarter consumption. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 90,900 - 94,500 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - Market Information: On December 9, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.48% to 2,597 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,720 yuan/ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB fell 1 dollar/ton to $311/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 37,000 tons to 254,300 tons [23] - Strategy View: After the rainy season, shipments will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained flat. The raw material price of high - nickel iron remained flat, and the waste - steel recycling price increased by 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% [26] - Strategy View: Although the sales improved in November, the high - inventory pressure is still significant. The focus of the market should be on the actual implementation of steel - mill production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled and the demand for downstream low - level replenishment is released, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast - aluminum alloy weakened yesterday. The main AD2602 contract closed down 1.54% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 30,000 lots, and the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 10 tons to 49,200 tons [29] - Strategy View: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and the supply - side disturbances continue. The price has strong support below, but the demand is relatively volatile, and there is pressure from delivery above. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate with aluminum prices [30]
五矿期货有色金属日报-20251210
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-10 01:10