原油：空单持有，或逐步下探新低

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually decline to new lows [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.63, or 1.07%, to $58.25 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.55, or 0.88%, to $61.94 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 5.90 yuan per barrel, or 1.31%, at 443.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with only Vasconia showing a weak arbitrage opportunity of $0.76 per barrel, and Ecuador's Napo crude oil having a significant arbitrage space of $3.66 per barrel [2][4] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, and Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $22.82 per barrel due to sanctions [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil varieties such as WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with varying degrees of arbitrage space [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with weak competitiveness against Urals [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have closed arbitrage windows [8] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4779000 barrels in the week ending December 5, API Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47000 barrels, and API gasoline inventory increased by 6955000 barrels [9][10] - EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20000 barrels per day to a record - high average of 13.61 million barrels per day, but lowered the 2026 forecast by 50000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [11] - EIA slightly raised the 2025 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts and also slightly raised the 2026 forecasts [11] - Russia's average daily crude oil production in November was about 9.43 million barrels, still more than 100000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota [11]