高位价格抑制下游需求施压铜价：沪铜日评20251210-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2. Core View - High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation expectations and potential adjustments in Shanghai copper prices. The report suggests that investors take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for different copper markets [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - Closing Price: The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures mixed contract on December 9, 2025, was 91,090, down 1,880 from the previous day [3] - Trading Volume: The trading volume on December 9, 2025, was 190,409 lots, a decrease of 4,520 lots from the previous day [3] - Open Interest: The open interest on December 9, 2025, was 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots from the previous day [3] - Inventory: The inventory on December 9, 2025, was 29,531 tons, a decrease of 425 tons from the previous day [3] - Basis and Premium: Various basis and premium indicators showed different changes, such as the Shanghai copper basis (SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price) increasing by 1,795 [3] 3.2 London Copper Futures - Closing Price: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures on December 9, 2025, was 11,470, down 205 from the previous day [3] - Contract Spreads: The 0 - 3 month and 3 - 15 month contract spreads of LME copper futures showed different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 COMEX Copper Futures - Closing Price: The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract on December 9, 2025, was 5.3295, down 0.12 from the previous day [3] - Total Inventory: The total inventory on December 9, 2025, was 443,047, an increase of 6,194 from the previous day [3] 3.4 Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - Supply: There are production disturbances at multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tightening supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods has decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels: 85,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,600 - 11,000 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper; resistance levels are 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper, 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]