铂钯高位震荡，等待进一步驱动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 9, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, with a change of -1.30%; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, with a change of -0.47% [2] - For platinum, with the FOMC meeting approaching, it's waiting for further upward drive. Long - term, it maintains a bullish view. It's expected that platinum prices will fluctuate strongly, and it's recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy [3] - For palladium, the spot shortage continues and the price remains firm. Short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, while medium - to long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to looser supply - demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate meeting this week is a focus, with expectations of a hawkish rate - cut signal. In December, the nomination of the Fed chair makes rate - cuts a core trading contradiction. The potential dovish Fed chair nominee makes platinum prices stronger. Long - term, high supply concentration brings risks, and demand will expand, with the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination amplifying price elasticity [3] - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's advisable to focus on low - buying opportunities and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy at a low platinum - palladium ratio [3] Palladium - Main logic: The Russian geopolitical issue affects palladium supply. The US investigation on Russian palladium and the lack of a compromise in the Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a short - term supply shortage in other regions. Palladium demand has structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, short - term shortage and Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [4] - Outlook: Short - term, due to spot shortage and a relatively favorable macro - environment, palladium prices will fluctuate strongly. Medium - to long - term, pay attention to the price decline risk after the US investigation's result and the loosening of supply - demand [4] Commodity Index (December 9, 2025) - The comprehensive index was 2242.53, with a change of -1.08%; the commodity 20 index was 2560.81, with a change of -1.08%; the industrial product index was 2185.44, with a change of -1.38% [32] - The PPI commodity index was 1348.04, with a change of -1.57% [32] - The non - ferrous metal index was 2532.90, with a daily change of -1.69%, a 5 - day change of +0.67%, a 1 - month change of +1.93%, and a year - to - date change of +9.73% [32]