Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is characterized by volatility, with different commodities affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical events. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, testing the 3900 - point support and confirming the breakthrough direction of the triangular consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bond market sentiment has eased but remains cautious. It is advisable to go long on the TL contract on dips and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities for the TF contract [22]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The bullish factors have limited impact, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26]. - Sugar: Internationally, the sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, it is likely to move sideways at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and sell put options at a low level [30]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and short on rallies, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot price has declined, and the market is expected to continue to fall. It is recommended to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, conduct 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [38]. - Hogs: The short - term pressure has improved, but the overall supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [41]. - Peanuts: The market has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [44]. - Eggs: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the near - term contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [48]. - Apples: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [52]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new cotton sales are good, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in a range and the Zhengzhou cotton to be strong in the short term, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56]. Black Metals - Steel: The market sentiment is volatile, and the steel price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the start of winter storage. It is recommended to expect the coking coal to oscillate, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [60]. - Iron Ore: It is recommended to take a bearish view. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. - Ferroalloys: The cost provides support, but the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to expect the market to oscillate at the bottom, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver may remain strong. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips, go long on silver cautiously on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [68]. - Platinum and Palladium: They are following the strength of gold and silver. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, stay on the sidelines for palladium, conduct long platinum - short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [70]. - Copper: The short - term profit - taking of funds has occurred, but the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to take profits on long positions on rallies, pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [74]. - Alumina: It is expected to be under pressure before the expiration of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [78]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price has fallen due to the departure of funds before the interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [82]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price has fallen with the aluminum price due to macro - expectations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the narrowing of the AD - AL spread during the aluminum price correction, and stay on the sidelines for options [84]. - Zinc: The market is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [87]. - Lead: The price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [90]. - Nickel: The price may still face downward pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to expect a downward - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. - Stainless Steel: It is following the nickel price and oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to expect a low - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. - Industrial Silicon: The Shihezi silicon plants have not significantly reduced production, and the short - term trend is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - Polysilicon: With the establishment of the platform company, it is recommended to buy on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and use the strategy of buying both call and put options [100]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply has returned to the spotlight, and the price continues to correct. It is recommended to buy after the mid - term correction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 2605 contract on rallies [102]. - Tin: The price has retreated from a high level, waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to wait and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. Shipping - Container Shipping: The MSK WK52 price has slightly decreased, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions in the EC2602 contract and conduct 2 - 4 cash - and - carry arbitrage and take profits on rallies and then stay on the sidelines [108]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the oil price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for gasoline, be bearish on diesel, and expect a weak contango for crude oil. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. - Asphalt: There are signs of winter storage, and the price is in a dilemma. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2601 contract [113]. - Fuel Oil: Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have weak fundamentals. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, have a neutral view on low - sulfur cracking and a bearish view on high - sulfur cracking, and stay on the sidelines for options [116]. - Natural Gas: The LNG price has strong resistance to decline, and the HH price continues to correct. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, sell call options for TTF, sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options for HH [118]. - PX & PTA: PX supply remains abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, conduct TA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call and put options [120]. - BZ & EB: Pure benzene supply is loose, and the styrene basis has weakened. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [123]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory has a de - stocking pressure, and the price is falling. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [127]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling both call and put options [129]. - Bottle - Grade PET: The supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling both call and put options [132]. - Propylene: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [133]. - Plastic PP: PE inventory has marginally increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in the L2601 contract, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2601 contract, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [136]. - Caustic Soda: The price is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141]. - PVC: The price continues to decline. It is recommended to expect a weak - rebound trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [144]. - Soda Ash: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, pay attention to the 05 contract short - soda - long - glass spread opportunity, and stay on the sidelines for options [147]. - Glass: The price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, pay attention to the 05 contract short - soda - long - glass strategy opportunity, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [150]. - Methanol: The price is declining weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 05 contract long opportunity, conduct 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [154]. - Urea: Low - price transactions are acceptable. It is recommended to expect a weak trend in the short and medium terms, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [157]. - Pulp: Demand has not improved, and the market is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [160]. - Logs: The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can go long slightly near the previous low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and pay attention to 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Stay on the sidelines for options [163]. - Offset Printing Paper: Supply pressure remains, and the market has limited rebound momentum. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [166]. - Natural Rubber: The growth rate of the predicted natural rubber production in October by the rubber alliance has slowed down. It is recommended to reduce positions in the RU01 contract, stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, hold long positions in the NR 02 contract, conduct RU2605 - NR2605 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [170]. - Butadiene Rubber: The crude - oil cost support has been declining. It is recommended to go long slightly in the BR 02 contract, stay on the sidelines for BR2602 - NR2602 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [174].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251210
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-10 01:50