首席点评：等待美联储靴子落地

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause later. The market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, but Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for rate cuts [1]. - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the rhythm of the A - share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the policies are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's rate cuts, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - For various futures varieties, different trends and influencing factors are analyzed, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided, such as the long - term upward trend of precious metals and the short - term weakening trend of some energy and chemical products [12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - Treasury Bonds: Generally rising, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.83%. Market liquidity is stable, but there are concerns about global liquidity tightening. The long - term Treasury bond futures price remains weak due to factors such as the suspension of 5 - year fixed deposits in banks and the new fund sales regulations [2][10]. - Oils and Fats: Soybean and rapeseed oils were weak at night, while palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil exports slowed down, and production decreased. The expected inventory build - up in November may limit the upside of palm oil. The arrival of imported Australian rapeseed may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3][28]. - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. The supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to supply disruptions [3][18]. 3.2 Daily News Focus 3.2.1 International News - Chinese and US officials met to promote Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. China welcomes more US companies to invest in China, and the US side is willing to play a bridging role [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite 47 and the Satellite Internet Low - Earth Orbit Group 15 satellites on December 9 [6]. 3.2.3 Industry News - Multiple provinces have released the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, proposing to accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model and improve the housing supply system [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Index: The US stock market was mixed. Before the policies of the two important meetings are determined, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - Treasury Bonds: The situation is similar to the key varieties section, with long - term bond futures remaining weak [10][11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: The SC crude oil fell 1.31% at night. The European conflict and the US oil production forecast are the main influencing factors, and the downward trend remains [12]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 1.45% at night. The start - up rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13]. - Rubber: The natural rubber futures declined. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply is entering the off - season. The demand for all - steel tires is stable. The price is expected to be volatile in a wide range [14]. - Polyolefins: The polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity market. It is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Their inventories decreased, and the market is cautious. The focus of trading is shifting to the May contract [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Silver reached a new high, and gold fluctuated slightly. Weak employment data strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in December. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged [17]. - Copper: Similar to the key varieties section, the price closed lower at night, with tight concentrate supply and a potential supply - demand deficit [18]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed lower. The concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [19]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum fell 0.7% at night. Due to the approaching Fed meeting and uncertainty about future rate - cut paths, the price corrected. In the long term, it is supported by supply and demand factors [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand situation is complex. In the short term, the supply is affected by production resumption, and the price is risky to chase up. In the long term, it can be considered from a bullish perspective after a correction [21][22]. 3.3.4 Black - Coking Coal and Coke: The night - session trading was volatile. Steel mill profits are low, and iron - water production may decrease, which is negative for the demand for coking coal and coke. However, strong policy expectations in December may provide upward momentum [23]. - Iron Ore: The iron - ore price slightly declined. Shipping increased slightly, and port inventories increased slightly. Steel mills' profitability is low, and they will continue to purchase on demand. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [24]. - Steel: The steel price fluctuated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but macro - expectations are positive, so there is some short - term upward momentum, but the medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, putting pressure on prices [26][27]. - Oils and Fats: Similar to the key varieties section, soybean and rapeseed oils were weak, and palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil inventory build - up and the arrival of Australian rapeseed are the main influencing factors [3][28]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were volatile and are expected to be weak in the short term. International and domestic factors such as Brazilian sugar production and Chinese sugar supply affect the price [29]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton futures were volatile and are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but there is also hedging pressure [30]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 1.17%. The demand in mid - December is okay, and the price is expected to be volatile. The 04 contract may decline due to supply - surplus and potential resumption of Red Sea shipping [31].