尿素：震荡运行，日内关注库存指标

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to move in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the price decline slowing down and entering an oscillatory phase. The upper limit is restricted by incremental warehouse receipts, while the lower limit is supported by continuous restocking from middle and downstream players. The current fundamental driver of urea is neutral, and the price is supported by the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market (01 Contract): The closing price was 1,643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,644 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 140,314 lots, a decrease of 76,397 lots; the open interest was 150,646 lots, a decrease of 16,428 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 11,477 tons, a decrease of 49 tons; the trading volume was 461.365 million yuan, a decrease of 254.325 million yuan. The basis in Shandong increased by 3, the basis of Fengxi - contract increased by 3, and the basis of Dongguang - contract decreased by 7. The spread of UR01 - UR05 of Henan Xinlianxin decreased by 4 [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong remained unchanged, while those in Shanxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [1] - Supply - side Key Indicators: The operating rate was 79.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points, and the daily output was 192,480 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased. The demand for reserves and exports has improved the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral. Whether the driver can turn upward depends on the continuity of middle - stream restocking [2] - In the short - term, as the urea price drops from a high level, the spot trading improved on Tuesday. The overall price decline is expected to slow down, and the market will enter an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to spot trading and enterprise inventory data released by information providers [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]