20251210申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot side, for linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina lowered some prices by 150 yuan. For拉丝PP, Sinopec maintained stability and PetroChina cut some prices by 30 yuan. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, with demand steadily releasing. However, market sentiment was still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the current rebound, it generally remains in a low - level oscillation process [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of LL for January, May, and September were 6557, 6610, and 6656 respectively, with price drops of 86, 98, and 98 from two days ago, and percentage drops of - 1.29%, - 1.46%, and - 1.45%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6192, 6280, and 6322, with price drops of 83, 90, and 87 from two days ago, and percentage drops of - 1.32%, - 1.41%, and - 1.36% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 228488, 193612, and 2327 respectively, and the open interests were 339262, 359775, and 5745, with open interest changes of - 34931, 43792, and 656. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September were 245848, 139975, and 3064, and the open interests were 411158, 341176, and 18638, with open interest changes of - 11906, 22036, and 718 [2] - Spreads: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 53, - 46, and 99 respectively, compared with previous values of - 65, - 46, and 111. For PP, the current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 88, - 42, and 130, compared with previous values of - 95, - 39, and 134 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2070 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2094 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - Mid - stream Spot Market: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6750 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, and 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6200 - 6350 yuan/ton, 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, and 6200 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (December 9), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63 or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.12 - $59.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55 or 0.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.83 - $62.78 [2]