LLDPE：单边下跌，基差被动转正

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - LLDPE shows a unilateral decline, and the basis turns positive passively. The raw - material end of crude oil price fluctuates, the monomer link rebounds slightly, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market fluctuates at a low level, downstream demand weakens marginally, and the upstream offers discounts at the end of the year, with a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Information: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6557, a daily decline of 1.29%, with a trading volume of 447,602 and a position change of - 34,931 [1] - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 01 contract was 13 yesterday, compared with - 43 the previous day; the spread between the 01 - 05 contracts was - 53 yesterday, compared with - 65 the previous day [1] - Important Spot Prices: In the North China region, the price was 6,570 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6,600 yuan/ton the previous day; in the East China region, it was 6,750 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6,840 yuan/ton the previous day; in the South China region, it was 6,670 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6,750 yuan/ton the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - The futures market is under downward pressure, and the basis of North China LL has strengthened passively to a premium. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently. Last week, the futures rebounded, but the upstream sold at discounted prices. With the marginal weakening of demand, the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor, and the basis is under pressure. The US dollar offers from the Middle East in November decreased this week as expected, the quantity of US offers decreased, and the prices dropped slightly. Shipments from the Middle East and the US were delayed due to turnover, and it is expected that there will be more arrivals in Q1 of 2026 [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw - material end fluctuates, the monomer link rebounds slightly, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand has weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods has weakened. The upstream offers discounts at the end of the year, with a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the current maintenance plan in December is neutral, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [2]