通胀回归：2026年国内经济展望

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, with a recovery pattern characterized by "front low, back high" dynamics[12] - The first quarter is expected to show a growth of 4.7%, influenced by the ongoing decline in real estate investment and seasonal factors[28] - The second quarter is anticipated to stabilize at 4.9%, driven by new policy implementations and increased manufacturing investment[28] - The third quarter is forecasted to accelerate to 5.2%, with PPI expected to turn positive, enhancing industrial production[28] - The fourth quarter is projected to maintain a growth rate of 5.0%, supported by improved corporate profits and consumer spending[29] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 5%, driven by long-term policies and profit improvements in high-tech industries[37] - Real estate investment is projected to decline by 8%, indicating a continued natural clearing process in the market[13] - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to grow by 3%, reflecting a balance between debt management and development needs[13] Price Dynamics - CPI is predicted to rise to a central level of 0.5% in 2026, marking a reversal from near-zero growth in 2024-2025[8] - PPI is expected to turn positive in Q3 2026, with an end-of-year forecast of a 0.5% increase, signaling a significant improvement in upstream profitability[8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales are projected to grow by approximately 4.2%, with a shift towards income distribution optimization and targeted subsidies[8] - Service consumption is anticipated to outpace goods consumption, driven by policy support and changing consumer preferences[8] Export and Import Outlook - Exports are expected to grow by 5%, supported by the U.S. inventory replenishment cycle and market diversification strategies[8] - Imports are projected to increase by 2.5%, driven by improved industrial profits and a stable RMB exchange rate[8]