国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The structural surplus is changing, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthening [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading remains light, and it shows a weak and volatile trend [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the subsequent environmental protection situation in Xinjiang [2]. - Polysilicon: With the establishment of the platform company, the trading strategy for the market is mainly to buy on dips [2][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,350 yuan, down 680 yuan from the previous trading day; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 102,410 lots; that of stainless - steel's main contract was 127,287 lots. Other data on electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel products also showed different degrees of changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mine area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. The Indonesian government imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and new regulations on RKAB approval were issued [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 91,000 yuan, down 2,060 yuan; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 92,800 yuan, down 2,040 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also changed significantly. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92,649 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9][10]. - Macro and Industry News: As the price of lithium carbonate soars, listed companies are accelerating the layout of sodium - ion batteries. Sodium batteries and lithium batteries are in a synergistic and complementary relationship [12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,340 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan; the closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,610 yuan/ton, up 1,065 yuan. The trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon also showed different trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to the previous period [13]. - Macro and Industry News: The "Research and Application Project on Key Technologies for Improving the Quality of Polysilicon Powder" of Shaanxi Non - ferrous Tianhong Ruike Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance, and the purity of its polysilicon powder products was successfully stabilized at the 7N level [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15].