五矿期货文字早评-20251210

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on their profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and in the long - term, the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market is expected to be volatile overall under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations, and pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [6]. - For precious metals, the December Fed interest - rate meeting may be a potential negative factor for the strong international silver price. It is recommended to take profits on silver at an appropriate time [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, but there are also differences. For example, zinc has limited upside potential in the medium - term, while nickel may be range - bound in the short - term [10][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [30][32]. - For energy chemicals, rubber can be considered for short - term long positions on dips; oil prices are recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and short - term waiting; other chemicals have different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [50][52]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, for live pigs, keep an anti - arbitrage idea; for eggs, be aware of the over - valuation of the contract; for soybean meal, it is expected to oscillate [73][75][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance Stock Index - Market Information: Premier Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand. A "polysilicon platform company" was established, Alibaba set up a C - end business group for Qianwen, and Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information will hold an investor briefing on terminating major asset restructuring [2]. - Strategy: Be cautious at the end of the year but optimistic in the long - term, and pay attention to important meetings [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Tuesday, the prices of main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed, and there were relevant news about the economy and bond issuance. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - Strategy: The market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the debt balance limit increment on the fourth - quarter growth [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rose. The dovish stance of the potential Fed chair candidate drove the precious metals market, and Trump will conduct the last round of Fed chair interviews [7]. - Strategy: The Fed interest - rate meeting may be a negative factor for silver. It is recommended to take profits on silver and pay attention to the price ranges of gold and silver [7]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Before the Fed interest - rate meeting, the dollar index rebounded, the domestic equity market weakened, and copper prices declined. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic basis changed [9]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short - term, and pay attention to inventory changes and macro events [10]. Aluminum - Market Information: Due to the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting, market sentiment turned cautious, and aluminum prices fell. Inventory and other indicators changed [11]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to be supported, and pay attention to the price ranges [12]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [13]. - Strategy: In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be strong following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term upside is limited [15]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [16]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to low domestic delivery inventory and a positive non - ferrous sector atmosphere [16]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices were weak. Spot premiums and cost prices changed [17]. - Strategy: Nickel prices may be range - bound in the short - term, and pay attention to the price ranges [18]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices fell. There were supply and demand issues, such as supply concerns and weak traditional demand [19]. - Strategy: After the release of macro risks, tin prices may strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot price index of lithium carbonate rose slightly, and the futures price fell [21]. - Strategy: There is no clear trend direction in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector [21]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices fell. There were changes in basis, inventory, and other indicators [22]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to supply - side policies and ore policies [23][24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [25]. - Strategy: High inventory pressure remains. Focus on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [26]. - Strategy: Prices may follow aluminum prices, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand and delivery [27]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [29]. - Strategy: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and pay attention to the winter storage price and macro factors [30]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices fell slightly. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [31]. - Strategy: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a downward pressure in the range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators. Soda ash prices fell slightly, and there were changes in inventory and other indicators [33][35]. - Strategy: For glass, maintain a bearish view; for soda ash, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating, and maintain a cautious and bearish view [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [36]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the macro situation and the price changes of manganese ore and electricity. Manganese silicon has a poor supply - demand situation, while ferrosilicon has a balanced supply - demand [37][38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose [39][41]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range [40][42][43]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices were weakly sorted. There were potential positive factors and different views on the rise and fall [45][46]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish idea, and consider short - term long positions on dips and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and related refined oil prices fell. There were changes in inventory [51]. - Strategy: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait and see in the short - term [52]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices changed, and there were changes in basis and spread [53]. - Strategy: The market is expected to be sorted at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices changed, and there were changes in basis and spread [54]. - Strategy: Urea prices are expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. Consider long positions at low prices [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [56]. - Strategy: Consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits when the inventory inflection point appears [57]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [58]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rises, as the supply is strong and the demand is weak [59]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [60]. - Strategy: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and pay attention to the risk of a rebound [61]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [62]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on the expected trading [63]. p - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [64]. - Strategy: PX is expected to accumulate inventory slightly in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [67]. - Strategy: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread when the price rises [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [69]. - Strategy: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices were half - stable and half - rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [72]. - Strategy: Keep an anti - arbitrage idea, and gradually shift from shorting the near - term contract to going long on the far - term contract [73]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were mostly stable with a few rising. The market trading was smooth [74]. - Strategy: Be aware of the over - valuation of the egg contract [75]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybean prices fell. Domestic soybean meal prices fell slightly, and the trading volume was good [76]. - Strategy: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [78]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Malaysian palm oil export data was poor, and the Argentine soybean export tax was reduced. Domestic oil prices fell [79]. - Strategy: Try to go long on palm oil on dips [80]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices were stable [81]. - Strategy: Be bearish on the international sugar price in the long - term, and wait and see in the short - term [84]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and spot prices fell slightly [85]. - Strategy: It is unlikely for cotton prices to have a unilateral trend [87].