国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251210

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Pressure is gradually emerging [2][11]. - Lead: The increase in domestic inventories has pressured prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range; Alumina: It is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy: It is under downward pressure [2][20]. - Platinum: It has broken through the trading range, and close attention should be paid to the previous high [2][23]. - Palladium: The bottom is continuously rising [2][23]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, but the gaming contradictions remain unchanged; Stainless steel: The supply - demand situation continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic has been strengthened [2][27]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D showed an increase of 0.80%, while Comex Gold 2512 and London Gold Spot decreased by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T + D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot all showed increases, with Shanghai Silver 2512 rising by 1.94% and Comex Silver 2512 by 2.21%. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were different degrees of changes. ETF positions and inventories also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes [4][7]. - Trend Strength: Gold and silver both have a trend strength of 1 [6]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2.02% and 1.76% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [8]. - Macro and Industry News: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's copper ore imports increased in November [8][10]. - Trend Strength: Copper has a trend strength of 0 [10]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 0.92%, while LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [11]. - News: China and the US should expand cooperation, and the US approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [12]. - Trend Strength: Zinc has a trend strength of 0 [13]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.98% and 0.52% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [14]. - News: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high [15]. - Trend Strength: Lead has a trend strength of 0 [15]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 0.40%, while LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to gold, including US employment data, Bank of Japan's stance, and international dialogues [18]. - Trend Strength: Tin has a trend strength of 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: For aluminum, the closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME Aluminum 3M showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and inventory changes [20]. - Comprehensive News: The "shadow Fed chairman" hinted at interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [22]. - Trend Strength: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend strength of 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamental Data: The prices of platinum and palladium in different markets showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [23]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump mentioned tariff reduction and interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [26]. - Trend Strength: Platinum and palladium both have a trend strength of 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless steel's main contract showed changes, and there were also changes in various industry - related data such as prices, spreads, and profits [27]. - Macro and Industry News: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a subsidy for Russian imports, and there were policy changes in Indonesia's mining industry. The Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of interest rate cuts [27][30]. - Trend Strength: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend strength of 0 [31].