Report Date - The report is dated December 10, 2025 [1] Investment Ratings for Industries - No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. For example, gold shows a trend of rising due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar [2][5][9] Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: With rising interest - rate cut expectations, its trend strength is 1. The price of domestic and international gold futures and spot has different performances, and the market is affected by factors such as the US employment data and the attitude of the Bank of Japan [5][7] - Silver: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60. The trend strength is 1, and it is affected by macro - economic factors and market sentiment [2][5][7] - Platinum: It has broken through the box, and attention should be paid to the previous high. The trend strength is 1 [24][26] - Palladium: The bottom is continuously rising, and the trend strength is 1 [24][26] Base Metals - Copper: The rising US dollar puts pressure on its price. The trend strength is 0. The production of some mines is affected, and the import volume of China shows an increasing trend [9][11] - Zinc: Pressure is gradually emerging, and the trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US economic relations and the approval of chip sales [12][14] - Lead: The increase in domestic inventory puts pressure on the price. The trend strength is 0, and it is affected by the US employment data and interest - rate cut expectations [15][16] - Tin: Supply is disturbed again, and the trend strength is 0. It is affected by macro - economic news and market sentiment [18][20] - Aluminum: It shows a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as production data and industry news [21][23] - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as Indonesian mining policies and supply - demand relationships [28][32] - Stainless Steel: The supply - demand continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. The trend strength is 0 [28][32] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - related Products: - Fuel Oil: It has weakened again, and the center of the disk continues to move down. The trend strength is 0 [135] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [135] - Chemicals: - Methanol: It is under pressure to operate. The trend strength is - 1. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [111][115] - Urea: It shows an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to inventory indicators during the day. The trend strength is 0 [116][118] - PVC: The trend is weak. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as supply, inventory, and cost [132][133] - LPG: The short - term demand is strong, but it is still under pressure in the medium - to long - term. The trend strength is 0 [124][128] - Propylene: There is an expectation of increased supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is - 1 [124][128] Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: - Palm Oil: Attention should be paid to the reaction after the MPOB report's negative factors are exhausted. The trend strength is 0 [163][170] - Soybean Oil: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and it shows an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0 [163][170] - Soybean Meal: The USDA report is mediocre, and the disk shows a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [171][173] - Soybean: It shows a rebound and oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [171][173] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend strength is 0 [174][177] - Sugar: It shows a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1 [178][181] - Cotton: It shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The trend strength is 0 [183][186] - Other Agricultural Products: - Eggs: The spot shows an oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [187] - Pigs: The market is trading the winter solstice expectation in advance. The trend strength is 0 [189][193] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [195][197] Others - Lumber: It shows a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [56][59] - Paper Pulp: It shows an oscillating operation. The trend strength is 0 [100][102] - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1 [107][109] - Synthetic Rubber: It shows a range - bound operation. The trend strength is 0 [74][76] - Rubber: It shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. The trend strength is 1 [71] - Asphalt: It shows a weak oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [78][87] - LLDPE: It shows a unilateral decline, and the basis is passively positive. The trend strength is 0 [91][92] - PP: There is selling pressure from the upstream, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The trend strength is 0 [93][94] - Caustic Soda: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The trend strength is 0 [95][98] - PTA: It is supported by cost, and the 5 - 9 spread is in a positive carry. The trend strength is - 1 [2][66][68] - MEG: Multiple sets of devices have reduced their loads, and the downside space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][66][69] - PX: The demand is seasonally weak, the supply is still tight, and it shows a high - level oscillating market. The trend strength is - 1 [2][66][67] - Benzene Ethylene: It shows a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [119] - Soda Ash: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is - 1 [122] - Short - Fiber: There is pressure in the medium - term, and it is advisable to short the processing margin when the price is high. The trend strength is - 1 [150][151] - Bottle - Chip: There is pressure in the medium - term, and it is advisable to short the processing margin when the price is high. The trend strength is - 1 [150][151] - Gummed Printing Paper: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend strength is 0 [153] - Pure Benzene: It shows a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [158][161] - Shipping Index (European Route): It shows an oscillating market. The trend strength is 0 [137][147][149]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251210
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-10 02:04