国泰君安期货所长早读-20251210

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: -1 [78] - PTA: -1 [79] - MEG: 0 [80] - Iron Ore: -1 [54] - Rebar: 0 [56] - Hot Rolled Coil: 0 [56] - Ferrosilicon: 0 [60] - Manganese Silicon: 0 [60] - Coke: 0 [65] - Coking Coal: 0 [65] - Logs: 0 [70] - Rubber: 1 [82] - Synthetic Rubber: 0 [85] - Asphalt: -1 [90] - LLDPE: 0 [101] - PP: 0 [103] - Caustic Soda: 0 [105] - Pulp: 0 [110] - Glass: -1 [116] - Methanol: -1 [119] - Urea: 0 [124] - Styrene: -1 [127] - Soda Ash: -1 [130] - LPG: 0 [132] - Propylene: -1 [132] - PVC: 0 [140] - Fuel Oil: 0 [143] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 [143] - Container Shipping Index (European Route): 0 [145] - Short Fiber: -1 [158] - Bottle Chip: -1 [158] - Offset Printing Paper: 0 [161] - Pure Benzene: -1 [166] - Palm Oil: 0 [171] - Soybean Oil: 0 [171] - Soybean Meal: 0 [179] - Soybean: 0 [179] - Corn: 0 [182] - Sugar: -1 [186] - Cotton: 0 [191] - Eggs: 0 [195] - Hogs: 0 [197] - Peanuts: 0 [203] Core Views - Trump stated that immediate significant interest rate cuts would be a "litmus test" for selecting the new Fed chair and might adjust tariff policies to reduce the prices of some goods [7][8]. - For MEG, multiple plants' unplanned load reduction provides short-term support, but in the medium term, it faces a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9][80]. - Platinum and palladium's short - term and medium - term trends are different. In the short term, there is no basis for a sharp rise in platinum, while palladium shows better performance. In the medium term, the fundamental logic of a bullish outlook remains [12]. - In the short term, soybeans face many negative factors, but in the medium term, the downside space is limited, and the possibility of sideways oscillation is high [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. Silver has reached a new high, breaking through 60. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and the Fed's attention to employment indicators shows mixed signals [20]. Copper - The price is under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar. The production of the Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) in 2026 will be lower than in 2024, and China's copper ore imports have increased [24]. Zinc - Pressure is gradually emerging. The US and China are promoting economic cooperation, and the US has approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [27]. Lead - The domestic inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and there are signals about the Fed's interest rate cuts [30]. Tin - Supply has encountered new disturbances. There are various macro and industry news, including the recovery of the US "small non - farm" ADP [33]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum shows range - bound oscillation, alumina shows a downward oscillation trend, and cast aluminum alloy faces downward pressure. There is news about the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the adjustment of the labor market [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum has broken through the box range, and attention should be paid to the previous high. Palladium's bottom has been continuously rising. Trump has made statements about the Fed chair and tariff policies [39]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's structural surplus has changed, but the contradiction in the game remains. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. There are news about the Indonesian nickel mining industry and the suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian imports [43]. Energy and Chemicals Carbonate Lithium - Spot transactions are still weak, and the price shows a weak oscillation. The price of carbonate lithium has declined, and the sodium - ion battery industry is developing [48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The platform company for polysilicon has been established, and the market still focuses on buying on dips. The polysilicon powder quality improvement project of Tianhong Ruike has passed the acceptance [51]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The retail sales of the domestic passenger car market in November decreased year - on - year [54]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - The sector sentiment is weak, and the prices show low - level oscillation. The steel production, inventory, and demand data in November and December have changed [56]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon is affected by supply - side information disturbances and shows wide - range oscillation. Manganese silicon's overseas miners have firm quotations and also shows wide - range oscillation. There are price and procurement news in the ferrosilicon and manganese silicon markets [60]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both show wide - range oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in November has improved [65]. Logs - The price shows low - level oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in November has improved [70]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX is in a high - level oscillation market. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market with cost support. MEG has multiple plants reducing loads, with short - term support but a medium - term supply - demand imbalance [73]. Rubber - The price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. The domestic heavy - truck sales in November decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market in the fourth quarter is weak [82]. Synthetic Rubber - The price shows range - bound operation. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [85]. Asphalt - The price shows a weak oscillation. The domestic asphalt production has increased, the inventory in factories has increased, and the inventory in social warehouses has decreased [90]. LLDPE - The price shows a unilateral decline, and the basis has turned positive passively. The raw material price oscillates, and the supply and demand situation is complex [101]. PP - The upstream selling pressure is high, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak [103]. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak [105]. Pulp - The price shows oscillating operation. The domestic pulp market is dull, with high inventory and weak demand [110]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of float - glass shows local adjustments, with a slight relaxation in supply and weak rigid - demand orders [116]. Methanol - The price is under pressure. The spot price has declined, and the inventory in ports may accumulate in December [119]. Urea - The price shows oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to inventory indicators. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand has shown phased improvement [124]. Styrene - The price shows short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market shows weak reality and strong expectation, and the supply and demand of styrene are relatively balanced [127]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with an expected increase in supply and general demand [130]. LPG and Propylene - LPG's short - term demand is strong, but it is under pressure in the long term. Propylene's supply is expected to increase, and the upward driving force is limited. There are price and production - capacity news in the LPG and propylene markets [132]. PVC - The price shows a weakening trend. The domestic PVC market has high supply and inventory, and short - term short - chasing is not advisable [140]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has weakened again, and the center of the price has moved down. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [143]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The price shows an oscillating market. The spot freight rate shows some changes, and the 02 contract may face a complex price trend, while the 04 contract is suitable for short - selling on rallies [145]. Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both face medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies. The short - fiber and bottle - chip markets show price and sales changes [158]. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and observe. The price of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, with high industry operation levels and weak demand [161]. Pure Benzene - The price shows short - term oscillation. The inventory of pure benzene in ports has increased, and the market shows weak reality and strong expectation [166]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the reaction after the MPOB report's negative factors are exhausted. Soybean oil shows an oscillating trend due to insufficient soybean - driven factors. There are production and supply - demand news in the palm - oil and soybean - oil markets [171]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - The USDA report is dull, and the soybean - meal price shows a low - level oscillation. The soybean price shows a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean price has declined due to concerns about Chinese demand and the expected bumper harvest in South America [179]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price of corn in the spot market has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [182]. Sugar - The price shows a weakening trend. The sugar production in India and Brazil has increased, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [186]. Cotton - The price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The domestic cotton - spot trading is average, and the price of cotton yarn is stable [191]. Eggs - The spot price shows an oscillating trend. The futures price of eggs has decreased, and the spot price is stable [195]. Hogs - The market is trading the winter - solstice expectation in advance. The spot price of hogs shows some changes, and there is news about warehouse - receipt registration [197]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price shows a slight decline [203].