贵金属日评：美联储降息和全球债务膨胀预期支撑贵金属价格-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut remains high, with a probability of over 80%. However, concerns about the rebound of consumer - end inflation may make Fed Chairman Powell's stance more cautious. Fiscal easing policies in Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK have led to expectations of global debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeding 6.5% has created an expectation of tight supply. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela are persistent. These factors are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Gold - Closing prices on different dates were 953.43, 946.69, 949.54 yuan/gram, with changes of - 2.85 and - 6.74 compared to previous values. Trading volumes were 35824.00, 43378.00, etc., with corresponding changes. Open interest also showed fluctuations [1]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Silver - Closing prices were - 53.00, 13596.00, 13649.00 yuan/kg, with changes. Trading volumes and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.1.3 COMEX Gold Futures - Closing prices were 16.70, 4236.60, 4219.90, with changes of - 28.40. Trading volumes, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also had specific values and changes [1]. 3.1.4 International Gold and Related Indices - London gold spot prices were 4188.25, 4198.00, 4238.85 dollars/ounce, with changes. SPDR and iShare gold ETF holdings also had corresponding values and changes [1]. 3.1.5 Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio - Ratios such as Shanghai gold/Shanghai silver, New York gold/New York silver, and London gold/London silver had different values and changes [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Trump suggested that interest rate cuts are a test for the new Fed chairman, considering two candidates, and may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods. Hassett believed that the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points [1]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP data improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's un - emphasized employment indicator, the October JOLTS job openings, rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - Multi - and Short - Side Logic: Mixed employment data in the US, some Fed officials supporting a December rate cut, and Trump's hint about a new Fed chairman candidate have increased the probability of a December rate cut. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries have led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits. The high lease rate of London silver has created a tight supply expectation, and geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support precious metal prices [1]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 14000 - 15000 [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - Multi - and Short - Side Logic: In 2025 - 2026, global platinum supply is expected to be tight, with production affected by factors such as high mining costs and slow growth in recycled platinum. Demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields. The Fed's December rate cut expectation and tight supply - demand situation may push platinum prices higher [1]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on buying on price dips. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - Multi - and Short - Side Logic: In 2025 - 2026, there will be a supply gap in palladium, but the supply - demand situation is expected to ease in 2027. Supply is affected by mining difficulties, while demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline due to emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles. The Fed's December rate cut expectation and the changing supply - demand situation may make palladium prices rise cautiously [1]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on buying on price dips. For London palladium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1].