铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, before the December FOMC, employment data showed a structural divergence. The "small non - farm" ADP improved marginally, while the overall labor market continued to cool according to the October JOLTS data. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, the US dollar index returned to 99.2, and the prices of different commodities showed various trends. In China, the economy is expected to continue to improve in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and more active macro - policies will be implemented. The A - share market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market's short - term adjustment may be coming to an end [2][3] - Silver soared above $60 due to supply constraints and is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback after the Fed's interest - rate decision. Copper prices fell due to concerns about the economic outlook and high prices, and are expected to oscillate. Aluminum prices adjusted due to the expected hawkish interest - rate cut. Alumina prices are expected to decline due to supply overcapacity. Cast aluminum is in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to weakening supply and demand. Zinc prices are oscillating and waiting for the interest - rate meeting's guidance. Lead prices are adjusting with limited downward space. Tin prices are expected to make a small - scale high - level adjustment. Industrial silicon prices are falling due to poor demand. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak supply and demand and falling costs. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to high inventories. Coking coal and coke prices are continuing to weaken due to high imports and weak demand. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to Argentina's tariff cuts and other factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range waiting for the MPOB report [4][6][8][10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20][21][23][25] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Before the December FOMC, the "small non - farm" ADP showed short - term stabilization, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in the four weeks up to November 22. However, the October JOLTS data indicated that the overall labor market continued to cool, with job vacancies rising to a five - month high, a more than 4% decline in recruitment, layoffs reaching 1.85 million (the highest since early 2023), and the voluntary resignation rate dropping to a five - year low. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.18%, the US dollar index returned to 99.2, the US stock market fluctuated and diverged, gold closed up, silver rose above $60, copper prices fell 1.3%, and crude oil continued to weaken [2] - Domestic: China will implement more active macro - policies in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate. The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume on Tuesday, and is expected to oscillate in the short term. The bond market recovered slightly, and the short - term adjustment may be ending. Attention should be paid to November's price and financial data and the Central Economic Work Conference [3] Precious Metals - Silver prices soared above $60, driving up the prices of other precious metals. The World Silver Association predicts that industrial demand will continue to grow until 2030. Silver prices are supported by low supply, falling global inventories, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and being included in the US critical minerals list. Traders expect an 89.6% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this week. The current bullish sentiment towards silver among funds remains strong, but there is a risk of a pullback after the Fed's interest - rate decision [4][5] Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper tested the 91,000 - yuan level, and LME copper fell from a high. The spot market for electrolytic copper had light trading. Trump's remarks on the Fed's rate - cut decision and tariff policies, along with a predicted 87% probability of a rate cut in the Thursday meeting, suggest that this may be the last hawkish rate cut of the year. Concerns about the economic outlook before the US rate cut and high copper prices in China, combined with weak demand and the strengthening US dollar, led to a decline in copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,825 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The LME aluminum price also fell. The market expects the Fed to make a third consecutive rate cut, and the better - than - expected labor data strengthens the expectation of a hawkish rate cut. The fundamentals of supply and demand are stable, but the previous upward trend in copper prices that drove up aluminum prices has temporarily ended. Aluminum prices are adjusting at a high level [8][9] Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,546 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The supply of alumina continues to be in surplus, and there is no sign of large - scale active production cuts. The expected weak balance between supply and demand means that the weak trend of alumina prices is difficult to change in the short term [10] Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The decline in the price of scrap aluminum due to the high - level adjustment of Shanghai aluminum affected the cost side. On the consumption side, the volatile aluminum prices made downstream consumption cautious. On the supply side, some enterprises suffered losses due to the rapid rise in aluminum prices, and their production started to decline slightly. Both supply and demand weakened slightly, and cast aluminum is in an oscillatory adjustment state [11] Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a weak intraday oscillation and a high - opening and low - closing at night. The Swedish mining company Boliden plans to reduce its capital expenditure in 2026 and focus on existing core projects. The market expects a hawkish rate cut by the Fed, and the strengthening US dollar suppresses zinc prices. The downstream is still afraid of high prices, and zinc prices are oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the interest - rate meeting [12][14] Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased in position and fell during the day and oscillated downward at night. The decline in market sentiment and the technical adjustment of LME lead led to a follow - up decline in Shanghai lead. The pressure on the supply side has weakened marginally due to increased maintenance of primary and secondary smelters, and the demand for automotive starting batteries is good. The social inventory remains at a low level for the year, providing support for lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to adjust in the short term, but the supply reduction and stable demand limit the adjustment space [15] Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak intraday oscillation and a narrow - range oscillation at night. The better - than - expected US employment data and the approaching Fed meeting made funds cautious, leading to a reduction in positions and a high - level adjustment of futures prices. The armed conflict in eastern Congo has not eased, but the market has priced in the impact on tin - ore transportation, and production has not been substantially affected. Higher tin prices have further suppressed consumption, and social inventories have continued to increase. Short - term tin prices lack upward momentum and are expected to make a small - scale high - level adjustment waiting for guidance [16] Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated weakly. The demand for industrial silicon is weak. On the supply side, Xinjiang maintains an 85% operating rate, production in the southwest has declined significantly during the dry season, and there is no expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia. On the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises is poor, the production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells is declining, and the actual demand for centralized - type photovoltaic installations is decreasing. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17][18] Steel - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The spot market is weak, with poor demand due to the cold wave. The willingness of traders in the Northeast to store steel for the winter is low. The supply and demand of steel are both weak. The reduction in rebar production has accelerated, and the supply - demand relationship has improved, with inventories continuing to decline, strengthening the support for rebar. The supply - demand data of hot - rolled coils has changed little, with a loose supply - demand situation and high - level inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak supply - demand drivers and falling costs [19] Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. As of December 1, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports reached 160.2398 million tons, an increase of 1.0829 million tons from the previous Monday. The supply of iron ore is strong and the demand is weak, with continuous inventory increases. This week, the overseas iron - ore arrivals have decreased while shipments have increased, both at high levels, and the port inventory has increased at a high level. On the demand side, steel - mill profits have shrunk, the scale of blast - furnace maintenance has expanded, and pig - iron production has declined. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures fell. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and port inventories are rising. Domestic mine production is stable, and upstream inventories have increased significantly. Coke - oven operations have increased, but downstream demand is weak, with slow coke sales and increasing inventories. The demand for blast - furnace raw materials is poor as the steel market enters the off - season. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to weaken [21][22] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures closed down. The December USDA report showed that the US 2025/2026 soybean yield and export demand were not adjusted, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels. Argentina's soybean production remained at 48.5 million tons, and Brazil's remained at 175 million tons, with a slight increase in the world's soybean ending inventory. Argentina is reducing export tariffs on agricultural products, increasing the export pressure on the international market. The state - reserve will release 512,500 tons of imported soybeans on the 11th. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [23][24] Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed down. The USDA report shows that the global 2025/26 palm - oil production is expected to be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.206 million tons, a downward revision of 383,000 tons. The MPOB reported that floods have affected palm - oil harvesting and transportation, impacting November's production. The global palm - oil supply and demand remain in a relatively tight balance, with production growth matching demand growth. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term waiting for the MPOB report [25][26]