碳酸锂日评：偏弱震荡-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On December 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined significantly, with trading volume at 512,215 lots (-87,152) and open interest at 575,421 lots (-17,708). The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount narrowed [1]. - On the cost side, the price of lithium pegmatite concentrate remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained flat. On the supply side, last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the output of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased. In terms of downstream demand, last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. Last week, the output of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in November, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments weakened; the production growth of energy - storage batteries in December stagnated. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons (-200), and social inventory decreased, with smelters and others destocking and downstream stocking [1]. - In summary, the news of lithium mine resumption is repeated. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment remains strong, the spot market trading is light, demand growth stagnates, and the short - term fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Under position limits, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market - The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with previous periods, with the near - month contract closing at 92,580 yuan/ton (-220), the consecutive - one contract at 93,060 yuan/ton (-2,100), the consecutive - two contract at 93,340 yuan/ton (-2,100), and the consecutive - three contract at 95,140 yuan/ton (-2,040) [1]. - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 512,215 lots (-87,152), and the open interest of the active contract was 575,421 lots (-17,708) [1]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the average price of industrial - grade 99.2% lithium carbonate was 90,350 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - The prices of various lithium ores such as lithium pegmatite concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone were mostly flat, with only slight fluctuations in some grades [1]. - The average price of 56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea lithium hydroxide was 10.2 US dollars/kg (unchanged), and the prices of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased slightly [1]. - The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and other products also showed different degrees of changes, with some prices increasing and some remaining flat [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 8,992 tons (-200). SMM lithium carbonate inventory: smelters and others had a total inventory of 113,602 tons (-2,366), and downstream inventory increased [1]. Industry News and Outlook - In November, Chile's copper exports fell to $4.28 billion, and lithium export value was $167.41 million [1]. - Due to repeated news of lithium mine resumption, high weekly output, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market trading, and stagnant demand growth, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [1].