20251210申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in the mining sector have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 91,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 11,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.19 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,000 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,735 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 100 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,846 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.14 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 525,800 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 23,025 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 166.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 57,750 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,375 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 116,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,430 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 192.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,344 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 228 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,115 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,977 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 51.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,825 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 312,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 930 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 39,850 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 46.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,075 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 10 tons [2].