Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical news - driven rebound in oil prices has limited space and sustainability, and there is a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term. Gold and silver markets are affected by US economic data and Fed meetings, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. The prices of various metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian companies and the release of restricted oil supplies. The US oil production is expected to set a larger - than - expected record. The market is concerned about the IEA's December report. The oil price rebound has mostly been reversed, and there is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, with a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil market is influenced by multiple factors and follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the demand drive is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved, but the demand lacks highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [19]. - Asphalt: Some refineries in Hebei have launched winter storage contracts, and the price is higher than market expectations. Some refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residue oil, and the supply has tightened, driving the market price up slightly. The decline of BU following the drop in crude oil prices is limited [20]. Metals - Precious Metals: The number of job openings in the US in October increased, silver reached a new high, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. The market focuses on the Fed meeting, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: The copper price adjusted overnight, and some positions took profits when the Fed cut interest rates in December. The market is concerned about the adjustment, and some long positions can be held after taking partial profits [4]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly overnight. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited, and the overbought situation in the technical aspect is being repaired [5]. - Zinc: The long positions took profits at high prices, and the Shanghai zinc price tested the annual line support. The domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease in December, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to rebound following the external market in the short - term, with a resistance level at 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Lead: The low price of lead reduces the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory in the exchange is low, and there is no obvious squeeze - out risk in the near - term. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement at low prices [9]. - Tin: The tin price fluctuated overnight. The Shanghai tin price continued to reduce positions and fell below the moving average. Options strategies can be considered [9]. - Nickel: No relevant content provided. - Manganese Silicon: The price fluctuated. The manganese ore spot price increased, and the port inventory has a structural problem. The silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [16]. - Silicon Iron: The price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in coal supply, which may lead to a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. The demand has some resilience, and the supply decreased slightly, with the inventory decreasing slightly [17]. - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the domestic arrival decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore price has a downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations [13]. - Coke: The market expects a second - round price cut for coke. The coking profit is average, and the daily output increased slightly. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreased. The total inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil): The steel price stabilized overnight. The demand for rebar decreased in the off - season, and the output and inventory decreased. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly. The steel mills' profitability is poor, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The black - series products are under pressure in the short - term, and the market is sensitive to macro - policies [12]. Chemicals - Polycrystalline Silicon: The polycrystalline silicon futures strengthened significantly, driven by the news of the establishment of a polycrystalline silicon consortium. The short - term upward expectation exists, but it needs policy verification to break through the upper limit of the range [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon broke through the previous low. The production reduction effect in the southwest region weakened, and the demand from the organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries decreased. The price may continue to decline, but it may be supported at the 8,000 - yuan/ton level [11]. - Urea: The urea price decreased slightly. The compound fertilizer enterprises increased their production, and the inventory of urea production enterprises decreased last week. The supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [21]. - Methanol: The methanol price continued to decline at night. The inventory at the port is expected to remain high, and the supply along the coast is sufficient. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range [22]. - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene price continued to decline. The port inventory increased, but the supply - demand pressure may be relieved in the future. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend [23]. - Styrene: The crude oil price decreased, and the pure benzene price may fluctuate within a range, which is difficult to drive the styrene price up. However, the supply - demand structure of styrene has not weakened and may support the price [24]. - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The propylene production enterprises' sales are smooth, but the price increase momentum is insufficient. The polyethylene supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply pressure of polypropylene is controllable, but the downstream demand is in the off - season [25]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: The PVC price continued to decline. The supply pressure may be relieved if the enterprises are forced to overhaul. The export situation has improved, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price continued to decline, with high supply and low demand, and the industry inventory is under pressure [26]. - PX & PTA: The PX and PTA prices fell at night. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA output increased slightly. The terminal weaving load continued to decline. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to be repaired [27]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol market was boosted by the news of device shutdowns. The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure. The long - term pressure still exists [28]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber load is high, and the inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The bottle - chip demand is weak, and the production capacity is in surplus, with the price mainly driven by costs [29]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The US soybean data in the December USDA report remained unchanged. The South American weather has improved, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased. The strategy is to wait and see the South American weather, and consider going long if the weather deteriorates [33]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet remained unchanged in December. Argentina will reduce the export tax on soybeans and their products. The market expects the palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase. The short - term view is that the prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate within a range [34]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed market is facing the supply impact of new crops. The supply is at its loosest stage, and the demand lacks positive factors. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import is diversified. The short - term price is expected to be weak [35]. - Soybean No. 1: The domestic soybean price is in a sideways shock adjustment. The policy will auction imported soybeans. The short - term US soybean price is in a callback, and the medium - term price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the domestic soybean spot and policy [36]. - Corn: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline in a shock pattern. The US corn export data increased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast is tight, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. The short - term 01 contract may decline, and the 03 and 05 contracts can be considered for long - positions after the decline [37]. - Live Pig: The live pig 03 contract rebounded slightly, and the far - month contracts were weak. The impact of the epidemic on the pig supply is expected to be limited. The industry needs to reduce inventory, and the pig price may have a second - bottoming in the first half of next year [38]. - Egg: The egg futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased. The 01 contract price is expected to be weak due to the convergence of futures and spot prices. The far - month contracts have reached a short - term high [39]. - Cotton: The US cotton price increased slightly. The domestic cotton sales progress is fast, but the downstream orders are weak, which limits the cotton price. The operation strategy is to wait and see [40]. - Sugar: The US sugar price fluctuated. The sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [41]. - Apple: The apple futures price fluctuated at a high level. The cold - storage apple sales are average, and the price is strong. The short - term price is strong, but the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure [42]. - Wood: The wood futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but the port delivery increased last week. The low inventory supports the price, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [43]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures price decreased at night. The port inventory decreased, and the new - year contract may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [44]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Maersk's pricing strategy is cautious, and the downward freight rate center is expected to be around $2400 - 2500/FEU. The loading rate is increasing, but the market lacks strong driving factors. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate [18]. - Stock Index: The A - share market was mixed, and the stock index futures closed down. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision. The A - share market is expected to be strong in a shock pattern, and investors can increase positions slightly at low prices after the uncertainty is relieved [45]. - Treasury Bond: The treasury bond futures fluctuated and adjusted. The interest - rate bond yields decreased. The market is still cautious, and investors can participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties after the liquidity is restored [46].
综合晨报-20251210
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-10 02:27