宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年12月10日）-20251210

1. Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "sideways", and the intraday views are "sideways to the downside". The overall reference view is a sideways trading approach [1]. - For coking coal, the pessimistic market sentiment dominates, leading to its weak performance. For coke, the weak fundamentals cause it to decline sideways [1]. 2. Price and Logic for Coking Coal - The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1170.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerating release of Mongolian coking coal imports exerts pressure on the supply side, driving the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level benefits from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention should be paid to the actual coal mine production [5]. 3. Price and Logic for Coke - The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. Currently, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the possible macro - level benefits from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of the decline in coke remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly abundant supply of coking coal [6].