尿素早评20251210：短期或震荡筑底-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report believes that urea may fluctuate and build a bottom in the short term. Urea's low valuation reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid - to late December, there is an expectation of reduced supply, and the export quota will relieve domestic supply - demand pressure, while winter reserve demand will support the price. Recently, the price decline is affected by sentiment cooling and coal price drops, but the price is supported at a low level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On December 9, UR01 closed at 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1711 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1721 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton, Shanxi dropped 30 yuan to 1530 yuan/ton (-1.92%), Henan dropped 10 yuan to 1680 yuan/ton (-0.59%), etc. [1] Spreads and Cost - related Information - The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was -21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The prices of upstream raw materials such as Henan and Shanxi anthracite remained unchanged, while the prices of downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine mostly increased. For example, Shandong compound fertilizer (45%S) rose 30 yuan to 3160 yuan/ton (0.96%) [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1646 yuan/ton, the highest was 1651 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1643 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1644 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]