工业硅&多晶硅日评20251210：宽幅整理-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The silicon market currently maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices under pressure and both spot and futures prices falling in tandem. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to conduct interval operations. For polysilicon, downstream production scheduling has declined, acceptance of high - priced goods is low, and there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to hold previous long positions cautiously and be vigilant against the risk of price pull - backs after positive news is realized. It is recommended to temporarily observe [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon grade 553 (East China) without oxygen decreased by 1.08% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of grade 421 (East China) decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 3.86% to 8,340 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Side Situation: In the southwest, the suspension of production in silicon enterprises has basically been implemented, and the start - up rate is at a low level for the year. In the north, the start - up is relatively stable. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand - Side Situation: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and silicone enterprises have reached a joint production - reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. - Investment Strategy: Conduct interval operations [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 1.95% to 55,615 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Side Situation: Silicon material enterprises continue to reduce production, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to around 120,000 tons month - on - month [1]. - Demand - Side Situation: The prices in the industrial chain are under pressure and are being adjusted downwards. Although polysilicon prices remain firm, market transactions are light, there are few new transactions, and downstream resistance to high - priced resources is strong [1]. - Investment Strategy: Temporarily observe. Hold previous long positions cautiously and be vigilant against the risk of price pull - backs after positive news is realized [1]. Industry News - As of September 2025, US solar developers have added 21.2GW of installed capacity, exceeding the 20GW added in the same period in 2024. Solar energy accounts for 11.78% of the total installed power generation capacity in the US [1]. - On December 9, 2025, the long - awaited polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was officially established, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [1].