Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with a high probability that Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. Market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts after his appointment, but implementation is uncertain due to factors like Powell's term, economy, and inflation, leading to a structural differentiation in asset prices. The market has fully priced in a rate cut in December's Fed meeting, and investors need to be wary of "selling the fact" trades and subsequent adjustments in rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, pay attention to the impact of November's non - farm payroll data on policy expectations. In China, the November manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2%, mainly benefiting from the rebound in external demand. The narrowing of the supply - demand gap and the recovery of the price index confirm the marginal improvement of the economy, but the PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating that the foundation for economic improvement is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and subsequent attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The unexpectedly improved US employment indicators drove the US dollar index up. The Fed's upcoming meeting is likely to feature a "hawkish rate cut," with limited negative impact on the US dollar. In China, positive macro - policies support the RMB against the US dollar. Future focus should be on US economic data in November, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, the Central Economic Work Conference, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.10, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.05 [4]. - The stock index market remains cautious before all important meetings are concluded. It is expected that the market volatility will increase this week, and the operation idea remains neutral - to - bullish, but beware of the A - share market's downward pressure if the signals from domestic and foreign meetings fall short of expectations [5]. - The short - term rebound space of treasury bonds is limited. Although the Politburo meeting's tone on monetary policy has calmed the market, the short - term monetary policy may not be loosened quickly. The medium - term policy still has room, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [6]. - For container shipping on the European line, the implementation of the spot market price increase plan remains the focus. The market is affected by a combination of macro sentiment and geopolitical situation. The price may fluctuate in the short term due to the coexistence of long and short factors [7][9]. - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. It is recommended to pay attention to the abnormal term structure of platinum and buy on dips. Palladium is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile market in the short term. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short term and rise in the long term [11][13]. - For copper, the market's expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has cooled, and copper prices are adjusting at a high level. The short - term strategy is to observe more and act less in the next two days, and enterprises in need of raw materials can look for opportunities to buy [15][18]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish. Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term; tin is expected to have a wide - range volatile market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips; lead is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19][20]. - For black commodities, steel products are expected to trade in a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil may be between 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices are expected to have limited downward space. Coking coal and coke prices are under short - term pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile and weak [22][23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices are in an oscillating downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. LPG is expected to maintain a volatile trend. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations. Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a weak outlook. PP and PE are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be in an oscillating and consolidating state. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are recommended to be watched. Asphalt is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. Rubber is expected to be in a range - bound volatile market. Urea is expected to continue an oscillating trend. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be weak. Pulp may have a certain downward space, and offset paper can be slightly chased for long. Logs are expected to have low - volatility oscillations and low trading volume. Propylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile trend [29][30][31][37][38][41][44][46][47][48][49][50][52][53][54][56][57][58][59][61][63][67]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the long - term can be bullish, but the short - to - medium - term is mainly based on fundamentals. For oilseeds, the external soybean market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the internal soybean meal market has limited downward space. For oils and fats, the market is expected to be in an oscillating state, waiting for data guidance. For cotton, the downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level around 13800. For sugar, the price is expected to remain weak. For eggs, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in surplus, and the price pressure is relatively large. For apples, the overall trend is strong. For jujubes, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream pre - holiday procurement [68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The US employment indicators unexpectedly improved. Overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy direction and the next Fed Chair appointment. The market anticipates a rate cut in December, but there is uncertainty. In China, the November manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the Politburo meeting set a positive tone for policies [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The unexpectedly improved US employment indicators drove the US dollar index up. The Fed's meeting may feature a "hawkish rate cut." China's positive macro - policies support the RMB. Attention should be paid to US economic data, Fed Chair appointment, Central Economic Work Conference, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange [3]. - Stock Index: The market is cautious before all important meetings. It is expected that market volatility will increase this week, and the operation idea is neutral - to - bullish, but beware of downward pressure if meeting signals fall short of expectations [4][5]. - Treasury Bonds: The short - term rebound space of treasury bonds is limited. The Politburo meeting's tone on monetary policy has calmed the market, but short - term monetary policy may not be loosened quickly. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [6]. - Container Shipping on the European Line: The implementation of the spot market price increase plan is the focus. The market is affected by macro sentiment and geopolitical situation, with short - term price fluctuations due to long and short factors [7][9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: They oscillated upward. In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up prices. It is recommended to pay attention to platinum's term structure and buy on dips. Palladium is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - Gold and Silver: Silver reached a new high. The short - term is expected to be volatile and consolidating, and the long - term is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's FOMC meeting, COMEX contract delivery, and other factors [13][14]. - Copper: The market's expectation of a 2026 rate cut has cooled, and copper prices are adjusting at a high level. The short - term strategy is to observe more and act less, and enterprises in need of raw materials can look for buying opportunities [15][18]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [18][19]. - Zinc: It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, with strong short - term fundamental support and limited downward space [19]. - Tin: It is expected to have a wide - range volatile market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. Attention should be paid to the Fed's rate - meeting expectations [20]. - Lead: It is expected to be strongly volatile, with support from the cost of recycled lead and the demand for automobile batteries [21]. Black Commodities - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are in a weak and volatile state. The overall steel price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed and downstream consumption [22][23]. - Iron Ore: The price has limited downward space, with support from steel mills' pre - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the Fed's and domestic economic work meetings [24][25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to steel mills' price - cut rhythm [26][27]. - Ferroalloys: They are expected to be volatile and weak, facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand [27][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium has subsided, and prices are falling. The medium - to - long - term supply surplus pressure remains, and the price is in an oscillating downward trend [29][30]. - LPG: It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, affected by fundamentals, macro, and geopolitical factors [30][31]. - PX - PTA: They are weakening with the decline in demand and commodity sentiment. The short - term is expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to PTA device dynamics [31][34]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The terminal demand is declining, and the supply - side negative feedback is emerging. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35][37]. - Methanol: The 01 contract is expected to have a weak outlook. Attention should be paid to Iran's shipping speed, inland supply - demand after Jiutai's recovery, and Lianhong's startup [38]. - PP: The valuation is extremely compressed, and further shorting is not recommended. Attention should be paid to PDH device operation changes and the spot market [39][41]. - PE: It is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the short - term is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the spot market and basis changes [42][44]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: They are in an oscillating and consolidating state. Pure benzene has a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene has a near - strong and far - weak pattern [45][46]. - Fuel Oil: The cracking is weak, and it is recommended to watch [47]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The cracking is low, and it is recommended to watch [48]. - Asphalt: Attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. The short - term is expected to be volatile, and options or basis trading can be considered [49][50]. - Rubber: The supply - demand pressure is large, and it is expected to be in a range - bound volatile market. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low [50][52]. - Urea: It is expected to continue an oscillating trend, with high supply pressure but supported by export policies [53][54]. - Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda: They are expected to be weak. Soda ash has an increasing surplus expectation; glass's near - month contract follows the reality, and the far - month is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda's demand is weakening and the supply is high [54][56][57][58][59]. - Pulp - Offset Paper: Pulp may have a certain downward space, and offset paper can be slightly chased for long. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [59][61]. - Logs: They are in a low - volatility oscillating state with low trading volume. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - Japanese relations on Japanese cedar imports [61][63]. - Propylene: It is expected to be in a weakly volatile trend, with a weak fundamental situation and cost - side support [66][67]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The long - term can be bullish, but the short - to - medium - term is based on fundamentals. The near - month has出栏 pressure, and the far - month is affected by expectations [68]. - Oilseeds: The external soybean market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the internal soybean meal market has limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the US soybean procurement progress and domestic supply expectations [68][69][70]. - Oils and Fats: The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, waiting for data guidance. Attention should be paid to the origin's weather and policies [69][70][71]. - Cotton: The downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level around 13800 [71][72]. - Sugar: The price is expected to remain weak, affected by the supply pressure from major producing countries [73][74]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is in surplus, and the price pressure is large. The short - term may have a rebound, and it is recommended to go long with a light position [75]. - Apples: The overall trend is strong, with the 01 contract being strong and the 05 contract falling [76]. - Jujubes: The short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream pre - holiday procurement [77].
金融期货早评-20251210
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-10 02:40