Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no mention of the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions of various energy - chemical futures such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Most products are in a state of shock, with some showing short - term strength or weakness, and investors are advised to operate according to different product characteristics and market conditions [2][12][13] - For example, PX is in a high - level shock market, with tight supply and certain demand support; PTA is supported by cost and shows a high - level shock trend; MEG has limited downside space in the short term due to device production cuts, but faces supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure in the medium term [12][13][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High - level shock market. Supply has a contraction expectation, but demand is still high under the high - start mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [12] - PTA: High - level shock market, cost - supported. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA for the 05 contract, and conduct a 5 - 9 positive spread. The unilateral price is in a high - level shock due to PX support [13] - MEG: Multiple devices have planned out - of - plan production cuts, providing short - term support. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. However, in the medium term, it is in a pattern of supply increase and demand decrease [14][15] 2. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members has decreased. The increase in heavy - truck sales in November supports the demand for commercial vehicle tires, but the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the fourth quarter is weak [16][17][18] 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range - bound operation. The inventory of butadiene is still at a relatively high level, and the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to operate in a short - term range [19][20][22] 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is weakly oscillating. The weekly output has increased, the factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend strength is weak [24][32][33] 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a unilateral decline, and the basis is passively positive. The upstream selling pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply may increase in the future, and the trend strength is neutral [34][35] 6. PP - The PP market is under upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and pellet materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, the supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the demand is weak, and the trend strength is neutral [36][37] 7. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short on caustic soda. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak. The cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [38][40][41] 8. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand [43][46][47] 9. Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the rigid - demand orders are still weak, and the trend strength is weak [49][50] 10. Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The short - term is weakly operating, and the 01 contract has high supply pressure in the medium term. In 2026, the fundamentals may improve marginally in the first quarter, and the trend strength is weak [52][55][56] 11. Urea - The urea market is oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory index during the day. The demand has improved temporarily, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure at 1700 yuan/ton and the lower support at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [57][58][59] 12. Styrene - The styrene market is in short - term shock. The short - term pure benzene market is oscillating at the bottom, and the supply pressure of styrene is not large. The port inventory is slightly decreasing [60][61] 13. Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general. The trend strength is weak [64][65] 14. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is under pressure. The trend strength is neutral [67][71] - Propylene: The supply has an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is weak [67][71] 15. PVC - The PVC market is weakly oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is under pressure. The short - term is not advisable to chase short, but the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [75][76] 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The market has weakened again, and the center of the disk has continued to move down [78] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The market is in a narrow - range shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [78] 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) market is oscillating. The 2602 contract may experience price increases in January, but the high price is difficult to sustain. The 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling at high levels, and the trend strength is neutral [80][90][91] 18. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - Fiber: There is medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee at high levels. The futures are weakly adjusted, and the spot price is mostly stable [93][94] - Bottle Chip: There is medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee at high levels. The upstream raw material futures are weakly oscillating, and the factory price is partially reduced [93][94] 19. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the paper mill's order - receiving situation is general [96][97][98] 20. Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weak in December but may improve after January [101][102]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251210
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-10 03:05