碳酸锂数据日报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The demand for lithium carbonate is strongly supported, but there is a short - term correction pressure due to the previous rapid increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,350 yuan/ton [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: the price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 92,580 yuan/ton with a - 0.24% change; lithium carbonate 2601 is 91,000 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change; lithium carbonate 2602 is 91,340 yuan/ton with a - 1.23% change; lithium carbonate 2603 is 91,240 yuan/ton with a - 1.23% change; lithium carbonate 2604 is 92,560 yuan/ton with a - 1.3% change [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,165 yuan/ton [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,610 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,535 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 8,675 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 9,925 yuan/ton [2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,095 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,800 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,700 yuan/ton with a 250 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,700 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan increase [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 50 yuan/ton with a 2,040 - yuan change; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 340 yuan/ton with a - 40 - yuan change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan change [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 113,602 tons with a - 2,366 - ton change; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 20,767 tons with a - 3,557 - ton change; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,695 tons with a 1,711 - ton change; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 49,140 tons with a - 520 - ton change; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,920 tons with a - 200 - ton change [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 94,487 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 3,021 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 93,100 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 3,898 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - The new energy storage installed capacity in China exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan", accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity. During the peak summer period this year, the peak call of new energy storage exceeded 30 million kilowatts [3] Market Situation - The peak season of the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) continues, the production schedule of the material end is basically flat, and the inventory transfer chain of "upstream - downstream - terminal" is smooth. In December, the production schedule increases slightly, and the tight spot supply of lithium spodumene restricts the large - scale resumption of production on the supply side. The market generally expects the downstream mine to resume production after obtaining the license in mid - December [3]