国债期货日报：债市情绪转暖，国债期货全线收涨-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment has warmed up, and treasury bond futures have closed higher across the board. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting released a signal of loose money. At the same time, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues, and the increase in global trade uncertainty adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9] - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a 2.38% month - on - month decrease; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with a 0.41% month - on - month increase [10] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 99.24, with a 0.13% increase; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0671, with a 0.02% increase; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.35% increase; DR007 is 1.45, with a 0.37% increase; R007 is 1.51, with a - 0.31% increase; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.62, with a 0.00% increase; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00% increase [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal: From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2] - Financial: At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance was still strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [2] - Central Bank: On December 9, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 117.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.303%, 1.431%, 1.510%, and 1.523% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 4. Spread Overview No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]