新能源及有色金属日报：矿端复产消息扰动，碳酸锂盘面偏弱震荡运行-20251210

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 9, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 94,580 yuan/ton and closed at 92,800 yuan/ton, with a -1.23% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 512,215 lots, and the open interest was 575,421 lots, down from 593,129 lots the previous day. The current basis was -1,910 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 12,920 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 91,100 - 94,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 89,900 - 90,800 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,168 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Downstream material manufacturers are cautiously waiting and have weak purchasing intentions, with light market transactions. Annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, focusing on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2] - With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, the domestic lithium carbonate output in December is expected to continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3% [2] - In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong. The energy storage market remains in a situation of strong supply and demand, with a tight supply pattern. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials in December are expected to remain high, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] - Overall, with a steady increase in supply and relatively stable demand, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to destock in December, but the destocking amplitude will slow down compared to November [2] Group 3: Strategy - The intraday market was weakly volatile, mainly affected by news of mine restarts. Inventory continues to be destocked, and consumption has some support, but the destocking amplitude is starting to slow down. Mine restarts are advancing and are expected to gradually resume production [3] - There are significant differences in the forecast of consumption in the first quarter. It is expected that consumption in the power battery sector will decrease, while that in the energy storage sector will remain high. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. There are no suggestions for inter - delivery and inter - variety trading [3]