哈塞特称美联储还有很大降息空间

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: On hold [9] Report's Core View - The market may price in more-than-expected monetary easing based on the statements of Hassett or Trump, so the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 940 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram [8] - The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold, but the tightness of the physical market has boosted the price to a new high. The silver price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, but one should be wary of the risk of price decline after the new high when the macro easing catalyst materializes [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal differences, and officials may then signal a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut. Kevin Hassett believes the Fed still has much room for rate cuts. Trump says he will use support for an immediate and significant rate cut as a "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman and may adjust tariff policies to help lower the prices of some goods [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 958.04 yuan/gram and closed at 951.54 yuan/gram, down 0.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 955.70 yuan/gram and closed at 955.82 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 13,726.00 yuan/kg and closed at 13,607.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,309,030 lots, and the open interest was 417,326 lots. In the night session, it opened at 13,761 yuan/kg and closed at 14,116 yuan/kg, up 3.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 9, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.184%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.573%, down 4.4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,520 lots, and the short positions decreased by 933 lots compared with the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 291,806 lots, down 21.77% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,943 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,051 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 2,048,908 lots, down 33.98% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The holdings of the gold ETF remained unchanged at 1,049.11 tons compared with the previous day. The holdings of the silver ETF decreased by 36 tons to 15,889 tons [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 9, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 0.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,160.19 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 69.93, down 0.02% from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 72.01, down 0.35% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 35,824 kg, down 17.41% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 775,390 kg, down 12.83% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 31,920 kg [7]