集运日报：多头情绪较强，多空博弈下盘面偏强震荡，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is experiencing a strong long - sentiment. Amid the long - short game, the market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rates have no significant fluctuations [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The market is in a long - short game. The SCFIS has a slight upward movement, indicating an optimistic attitude towards the February freight rate increase. The market is oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast - 8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the manufacturing prosperity level declining. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. Contract Information - On December 9, the main contract 2602 closed at 1619.8, up 1.17%, with a trading volume of 19,000 lots and an open interest of 30,700 lots, a decrease of 753 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to take a light - position trial long on the main contract. When the market dives slightly, it is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for a pullback and stabilization before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Situation - Israel plans to ensure the return of the remains of the last detained person, promote the second - stage ceasefire in Gaza, aiming for the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza. Hamas is willing to discuss disarmament within the framework of establishing a Palestinian state, proposing a 5 - to 10 - year long - term ceasefire for negotiation. Hamas welcomes UN forces to monitor the ceasefire near the Gaza border but does not accept their authorization to act within Palestinian territories [5].