有色商品日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. The latest US ADP data showed positive signals in the labor market. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path and liquidity replenishment are in focus. Before the Fed's meeting, the market may be volatile, and investors should watch LME's performance around the rate - cut [1]. - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The supply of alumina remains high, and inventory is increasing. Although aluminum prices followed copper and reached new highs, the follow - up strength is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain has some support, but the upside is limited. The new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces pressure on the finished - product side. Nickel may oscillate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Macro: US ADP data showed an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in four weeks ending November 22, ending job losses. The Fed's potential rate - cut space exists but may change with inflation. Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference is under attention [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons; COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons to 29,531 tons; BC copper remained at 4,929 tons [1]. Aluminum - Futures: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,503 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with an increase of 4,647 lots in positions to 287,000 lots. AL2601 closed at 21,835 yuan/ton, down 0.7%, with a decrease of 5,836 lots in positions to 189,900 lots. AD2601 closed at 20,870 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with an increase of 57 lots in positions to 17,376 lots [1]. - Spot: SMM alumina price dropped to 2,805 yuan/ton. Aluminum ingot spot discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod processing fees varied in different regions, and some aluminum - related products' processing fees changed [1][2]. - Supply: After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and Australian mines accelerated shipments. Some mines with revoked rights also resumed production, leading to an increase in ore supply [2]. Nickel - Futures: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.91% to $14,750/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.18% to 116,360 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 252,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons to 34,361 tons [2]. - Market: Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. Nickel - iron prices are rising, and the new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces finished - product pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market: On December 9, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 92,165 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The flat - copper premium dropped by 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 600 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 752 yuan [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 164,550 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 9,025 tons. COMEX inventory increased by 2,410 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. Lead - Market: On December 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. Some lead - related prices and premiums changed slightly [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,825 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 100 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,064 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market: On December 9, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 40 yuan. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained - 100 yuan, and the spot premium remained - 90 yuan. Some raw - material prices remained stable, and some downstream processing fees changed [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 525,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 127 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 8,353 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained at 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market: On December 9, 2025, the prices of some nickel - related products changed. For example, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 75 yuan, and the premium of 1 imported nickel over Wuxi increased by 450 yuan [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 253,344 tons. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 1,726 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed slightly [4]. Zinc - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.1%. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 60 yuan. The domestic and imported zinc premium averages increased by 10 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 57,750 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 2,330 tons, and LME increased by 2,475 tons [6]. Tin - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price decreased by 0.3%. The SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,800 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 506 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 3,075 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 29 tons, and LME remained unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot premiums, SHFE near - far - month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, showing their historical data trends [7][8][12][21][27][33][40]